No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA’s Sentry system carry trajectories that could produce a 5 kt or greater airburst in 2026, supporting the current 75% market-implied probability for “No.” Ongoing orbital refinements from recent detections have eliminated residual impact solutions, while close-approach lists show only small, distant passages through year-end. Historical bolide records from the CNEOS Fireball database indicate meter-scale impactors reach this energy threshold on roughly annual timescales, yet all confirmed 2026 events—including those over Houston and Ohio—have remained well below the threshold. Annual meteor showers contribute negligible risk at this scale, and no new objects large enough to alter the outlook have emerged. Traders therefore assign meaningful but limited probability to an undetected sporadic impactor arriving before December 31.