Elevated inflation pressures, fueled by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with a divided July FOMC vote (9-3 to hold at 3.50%-3.75%), have driven Polymarket's 63.5% pricing on "Other" sequences for the June-September meetings. Traders see these factors as outweighing the stable labor market (unemployment near 4.2%) and solid growth, limiting the Pause-Pause-Pause path to 36% while rendering any cut scenario (1.7%) remote. The Fed's June hold and July statement reiterated commitment to the 2% target amid above-goal readings, shifting market-implied odds toward potential September hikes ahead of updated projections. Incoming CPI, employment data, and the September dot plot remain key catalysts for further repricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Other 64%
Pause–Pause–Pause 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$662,288 Wol.
$662,288 Wol.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
36%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
64%
Other 64%
Pause–Pause–Pause 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$662,288 Wol.
$662,288 Wol.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$263,797 Wol.
36%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$57,801 Wol.
1%
Other
$284,813 Wol.
64%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures, fueled by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with a divided July FOMC vote (9-3 to hold at 3.50%-3.75%), have driven Polymarket's 63.5% pricing on "Other" sequences for the June-September meetings. Traders see these factors as outweighing the stable labor market (unemployment near 4.2%) and solid growth, limiting the Pause-Pause-Pause path to 36% while rendering any cut scenario (1.7%) remote. The Fed's June hold and July statement reiterated commitment to the 2% target amid above-goal readings, shifting market-implied odds toward potential September hikes ahead of updated projections. Incoming CPI, employment data, and the September dot plot remain key catalysts for further repricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Wolumen
$662,288Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures, fueled by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with a divided July FOMC vote (9-3 to hold at 3.50%-3.75%), have driven Polymarket's 63.5% pricing on "Other" sequences for the June-September meetings. Traders see these factors as outweighing the stable labor market (unemployment near 4.2%) and solid growth, limiting the Pause-Pause-Pause path to 36% while rendering any cut scenario (1.7%) remote. The Fed's June hold and July statement reiterated commitment to the 2% target amid above-goal readings, shifting market-implied odds toward potential September hikes ahead of updated projections. Incoming CPI, employment data, and the September dot plot remain key catalysts for further repricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$662,288Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation pressures, fueled by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with a divided July FOMC vote (9-3 to hold at 3.50%-3.75%), have driven Polymarket's 63.5% pricing on "Other" sequences for the June-September meetings. Traders see these factors as outweighing the stable labor market (unemployment near 4.2%) and solid growth, limiting the Pause-Pause-Pause path to 36% while rendering any cut scenario (1.7%) remote. The Fed's June hold and July statement reiterated commitment to the 2% target amid above-goal readings, shifting market-implied odds toward potential September hikes ahead of updated projections. Incoming CPI, employment data, and the September dot plot remain key catalysts for further repricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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