**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy supply shocks from the Iran conflict, combined with solid GDP growth and a resilient labor market, has anchored trader expectations for steady policy through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings while elevating the odds of a September hike.** The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at both the June 17 and July 29 meetings, with the latter showing three dissents favoring a 25 basis point increase. July CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year (core 2.5%), easing only modestly from June, while June SEP projections lifted the median 2026 rate outlook to 3.8%. With the September 15–16 meeting now two weeks away and August data due shortly, markets price limited scope for a cut (0.6%) and assign the highest probability to scenarios involving at least one hike, reflected in the 57.5% share for “Other.” Recent communications emphasize data dependence, keeping the path for the remaining meetings closely tied to incoming inflation and employment prints.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Other 58%
Pause–Pause–Pause 42%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$823,043 Wol.
$823,043 Wol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
42%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
58%
Other 58%
Pause–Pause–Pause 42%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$823,043 Wol.
$823,043 Wol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$315,348 Wol.
42%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$95,796 Wol.
1%
Other
$356,023 Wol.
58%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy supply shocks from the Iran conflict, combined with solid GDP growth and a resilient labor market, has anchored trader expectations for steady policy through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings while elevating the odds of a September hike.**
The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at both the June 17 and July 29 meetings, with the latter showing three dissents favoring a 25 basis point increase. July CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year (core 2.5%), easing only modestly from June, while June SEP projections lifted the median 2026 rate outlook to 3.8%. With the September 15–16 meeting now two weeks away and August data due shortly, markets price limited scope for a cut (0.6%) and assign the highest probability to scenarios involving at least one hike, reflected in the 57.5% share for “Other.” Recent communications emphasize data dependence, keeping the path for the remaining meetings closely tied to incoming inflation and employment prints.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Wolumen
$823,043Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy supply shocks from the Iran conflict, combined with solid GDP growth and a resilient labor market, has anchored trader expectations for steady policy through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings while elevating the odds of a September hike.**
The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at both the June 17 and July 29 meetings, with the latter showing three dissents favoring a 25 basis point increase. July CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year (core 2.5%), easing only modestly from June, while June SEP projections lifted the median 2026 rate outlook to 3.8%. With the September 15–16 meeting now two weeks away and August data due shortly, markets price limited scope for a cut (0.6%) and assign the highest probability to scenarios involving at least one hike, reflected in the 57.5% share for “Other.” Recent communications emphasize data dependence, keeping the path for the remaining meetings closely tied to incoming inflation and employment prints.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$823,043Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy supply shocks from the Iran conflict, combined with solid GDP growth and a resilient labor market, has anchored trader expectations for steady policy through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings while elevating the odds of a September hike.** The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at both the June 17 and July 29 meetings, with the latter showing three dissents favoring a 25 basis point increase. July CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year (core 2.5%), easing only modestly from June, while June SEP projections lifted the median 2026 rate outlook to 3.8%. With the September 15–16 meeting now two weeks away and August data due shortly, markets price limited scope for a cut (0.6%) and assign the highest probability to scenarios involving at least one hike, reflected in the 57.5% share for “Other.” Recent communications emphasize data dependence, keeping the path for the remaining meetings closely tied to incoming inflation and employment prints.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania