Recent inflation readings and labor market data have created closely balanced expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee's September through December decisions, with no single rate path exceeding a 24% market-implied probability. Traders are weighing persistent core inflation above target against cooling employment indicators, producing tight spreads among sequences that front-load one or two 25-basis-point hikes before pausing. Key swing factors include the September CPI release, upcoming nonfarm payrolls, and any shifts in Treasury yields or Fed communications that could alter the expected terminal rate. With four meetings remaining in 2026, small revisions to growth or price forecasts could quickly reorder the leading combinations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Hike–Pause–Hike 23%
Hike–Hike–Pause 20%
Hike–Hike–Hike 19%
Hike–Pause–Pause 15%
$26,229 Wol.
$26,229 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
23%
Hike–Pause–Pause
15%
Hike–Hike–Hike
19%
Hike–Hike–Pause
20%
Pause–Pause–Hike
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
13%
Pause–Hike–Hike
4%
Pause–Hike–Pause
1%
Other
7%
Hike–Pause–Hike 23%
Hike–Hike–Pause 20%
Hike–Hike–Hike 19%
Hike–Pause–Pause 15%
$26,229 Wol.
$26,229 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$1,796 Wol.
23%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$1,632 Wol.
15%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$1,611 Wol.
19%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$1,762 Wol.
20%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$1,584 Wol.
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$14,704 Wol.
13%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$1,300 Wol.
4%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$1,453 Wol.
1%
Other
$388 Wol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings and labor market data have created closely balanced expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee's September through December decisions, with no single rate path exceeding a 24% market-implied probability. Traders are weighing persistent core inflation above target against cooling employment indicators, producing tight spreads among sequences that front-load one or two 25-basis-point hikes before pausing. Key swing factors include the September CPI release, upcoming nonfarm payrolls, and any shifts in Treasury yields or Fed communications that could alter the expected terminal rate. With four meetings remaining in 2026, small revisions to growth or price forecasts could quickly reorder the leading combinations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$26,229Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings and labor market data have created closely balanced expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee's September through December decisions, with no single rate path exceeding a 24% market-implied probability. Traders are weighing persistent core inflation above target against cooling employment indicators, producing tight spreads among sequences that front-load one or two 25-basis-point hikes before pausing. Key swing factors include the September CPI release, upcoming nonfarm payrolls, and any shifts in Treasury yields or Fed communications that could alter the expected terminal rate. With four meetings remaining in 2026, small revisions to growth or price forecasts could quickly reorder the leading combinations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$26,229Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings and labor market data have created closely balanced expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee's September through December decisions, with no single rate path exceeding a 24% market-implied probability. Traders are weighing persistent core inflation above target against cooling employment indicators, producing tight spreads among sequences that front-load one or two 25-basis-point hikes before pausing. Key swing factors include the September CPI release, upcoming nonfarm payrolls, and any shifts in Treasury yields or Fed communications that could alter the expected terminal rate. With four meetings remaining in 2026, small revisions to growth or price forecasts could quickly reorder the leading combinations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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