**Mexico City’s high-altitude location (approximately 2,240 m) and the peak of the rainy season shape the temperature distribution for August 9.** Typical daytime maxima hover near 23–25 °C, with historical August averages around 24 °C and rare excursions above 26 °C or below 22 °C. Current forecasts from multiple sources indicate partly cloudy skies with scattered afternoon showers, which limit solar heating and favor a peak near 24 °C—the market’s leading outcome at 38.5 % implied probability. Recent observations show temperatures running close to or slightly above the long-term normal, with no strong warming or cooling signals from regional circulation patterns. Cloud cover and precipitation timing remain the dominant variables that could shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Updated National Meteorological Service guidance and short-range model runs expected over the next 24 hours will refine these probabilities, but the current consensus supports the tight clustering around 23–25 °C.