**Forecast consensus from official and ensemble models points to a minimum temperature of 11–12°C in London on September 18, 2026, driving the market's heavy weighting toward those outcomes (12°C at 54%, 11°C at 28.5%).** Mid-September climatology for southern England features nocturnal radiative cooling under weakening Atlantic influence, with typical overnight lows near 11–13°C when skies are partly cloudy and winds remain moderate from the southwest. Current GFS and Met Office guidance show a clear to partly cloudy night ahead with dew points around 10°C and light-to-moderate westerly flow, limiting mixing and supporting surface temperatures dropping to the low-to-mid 50s °F (roughly 11–12°C). Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with limited upside risk from warmer advection and only modest downside if skies clear more than expected. Traders have priced the 13°C bucket modestly (16%) while assigning negligible probability to extremes below 10°C or above 13°C, consistent with the absence of strong high-pressure blocking or incoming frontal systems that could shift the range. The next model runs and any updated Met Office briefing will provide the primary near-term catalyst for price movement.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in London on September 18?
Lowest temperature in London on September 18?
12°C 54%
11°C 31%
13°C 16%
8°C 3%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 18, 2026
6°C or below
2%
7°C
2%
8°C
3%
9°C
3%
10°C
3%
11°C
31%
12°C
54%
13°C
16%
14°C
3%
15°C
2%
16°C or higher
2%
12°C 54%
11°C 31%
13°C 16%
8°C 3%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 18, 2026
6°C or below
$0 Wol.
2%
7°C
$0 Wol.
2%
8°C
$0 Wol.
3%
9°C
$0 Wol.
3%
10°C
$29 Wol.
3%
11°C
$1,322 Wol.
31%
12°C
$1,494 Wol.
54%
13°C
$367 Wol.
16%
14°C
$0 Wol.
3%
15°C
$0 Wol.
2%
16°C or higher
$0 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from official and ensemble models points to a minimum temperature of 11–12°C in London on September 18, 2026, driving the market's heavy weighting toward those outcomes (12°C at 54%, 11°C at 28.5%).**
Mid-September climatology for southern England features nocturnal radiative cooling under weakening Atlantic influence, with typical overnight lows near 11–13°C when skies are partly cloudy and winds remain moderate from the southwest. Current GFS and Met Office guidance show a clear to partly cloudy night ahead with dew points around 10°C and light-to-moderate westerly flow, limiting mixing and supporting surface temperatures dropping to the low-to-mid 50s °F (roughly 11–12°C).
Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with limited upside risk from warmer advection and only modest downside if skies clear more than expected. Traders have priced the 13°C bucket modestly (16%) while assigning negligible probability to extremes below 10°C or above 13°C, consistent with the absence of strong high-pressure blocking or incoming frontal systems that could shift the range. The next model runs and any updated Met Office briefing will provide the primary near-term catalyst for price movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$3,211Data zakończenia
Sep 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from official and ensemble models points to a minimum temperature of 11–12°C in London on September 18, 2026, driving the market's heavy weighting toward those outcomes (12°C at 54%, 11°C at 28.5%).**
Mid-September climatology for southern England features nocturnal radiative cooling under weakening Atlantic influence, with typical overnight lows near 11–13°C when skies are partly cloudy and winds remain moderate from the southwest. Current GFS and Met Office guidance show a clear to partly cloudy night ahead with dew points around 10°C and light-to-moderate westerly flow, limiting mixing and supporting surface temperatures dropping to the low-to-mid 50s °F (roughly 11–12°C).
Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with limited upside risk from warmer advection and only modest downside if skies clear more than expected. Traders have priced the 13°C bucket modestly (16%) while assigning negligible probability to extremes below 10°C or above 13°C, consistent with the absence of strong high-pressure blocking or incoming frontal systems that could shift the range. The next model runs and any updated Met Office briefing will provide the primary near-term catalyst for price movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$3,211Data zakończenia
Sep 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from official and ensemble models points to a minimum temperature of 11–12°C in London on September 18, 2026, driving the market's heavy weighting toward those outcomes (12°C at 54%, 11°C at 28.5%).** Mid-September climatology for southern England features nocturnal radiative cooling under weakening Atlantic influence, with typical overnight lows near 11–13°C when skies are partly cloudy and winds remain moderate from the southwest. Current GFS and Met Office guidance show a clear to partly cloudy night ahead with dew points around 10°C and light-to-moderate westerly flow, limiting mixing and supporting surface temperatures dropping to the low-to-mid 50s °F (roughly 11–12°C). Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with limited upside risk from warmer advection and only modest downside if skies clear more than expected. Traders have priced the 13°C bucket modestly (16%) while assigning negligible probability to extremes below 10°C or above 13°C, consistent with the absence of strong high-pressure blocking or incoming frontal systems that could shift the range. The next model runs and any updated Met Office briefing will provide the primary near-term catalyst for price movement.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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