**Recent forecasts place Seoul’s overnight low for July 19 near the long-term July average of 22–24 °C, with market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 22–24 °C.** This distribution reflects ongoing influence from the East Asian summer monsoon and a strengthened North Pacific High, which maintain high humidity and limit nighttime radiative cooling. Warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures around the Korean Peninsula—linked to the 2026 El Niño transition—have kept baseline minimums elevated, while urban heat-island effects in Seoul further reduce the diurnal range. Short-range model guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global ensembles shows modest day-to-day variability driven by cloud cover and light wind patterns; any increase in low-level moisture or scattered precipitation would favor the lower end (21–22 °C), whereas clearer skies could push the minimum toward 24–25 °C. Traders are therefore weighting the most recent 48-hour model runs and KMA updates that refine the expected minimum temperature range before resolution.