Recent forecast guidance from agencies including MetService and international models points to a low near 12°C in Wellington on September 6, driven by a strengthening northerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front that brings widespread cloud, rain, and dew points around 11–13°C. This setup limits nocturnal radiative cooling while winds of 20–26 mph mix the boundary layer, keeping minimum temperatures from dropping into single digits or rising above the mid-teens. Model consensus remains tight on the overall pattern but shows small timing differences in frontal passage that could shift the exact overnight minimum by 1–2°C, explaining why market-implied probabilities cluster around 11–12°C buckets while still assigning meaningful weight to cooler or warmer outliers. Updated runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Wellington on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 6?
8°C or below 69%
18°C or higher 69%
10°C 48%
14°C 48%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 6, 2026
8°C or below
69%
9°C
21%
10°C
48%
11°C
25%
12°C
27%
13°C
26%
14°C
48%
15°C
48%
16°C
8%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
69%
8°C or below 69%
18°C or higher 69%
10°C 48%
14°C 48%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 6, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Wol.
69%
9°C
$0 Wol.
21%
10°C
$0 Wol.
48%
11°C
$0 Wol.
25%
12°C
$0 Wol.
27%
13°C
$0 Wol.
26%
14°C
$0 Wol.
48%
15°C
$0 Wol.
48%
16°C
$0 Wol.
8%
17°C
$0 Wol.
2%
18°C or higher
$0 Wol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from agencies including MetService and international models points to a low near 12°C in Wellington on September 6, driven by a strengthening northerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front that brings widespread cloud, rain, and dew points around 11–13°C. This setup limits nocturnal radiative cooling while winds of 20–26 mph mix the boundary layer, keeping minimum temperatures from dropping into single digits or rising above the mid-teens. Model consensus remains tight on the overall pattern but shows small timing differences in frontal passage that could shift the exact overnight minimum by 1–2°C, explaining why market-implied probabilities cluster around 11–12°C buckets while still assigning meaningful weight to cooler or warmer outliers. Updated runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from agencies including MetService and international models points to a low near 12°C in Wellington on September 6, driven by a strengthening northerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front that brings widespread cloud, rain, and dew points around 11–13°C. This setup limits nocturnal radiative cooling while winds of 20–26 mph mix the boundary layer, keeping minimum temperatures from dropping into single digits or rising above the mid-teens. Model consensus remains tight on the overall pattern but shows small timing differences in frontal passage that could shift the exact overnight minimum by 1–2°C, explaining why market-implied probabilities cluster around 11–12°C buckets while still assigning meaningful weight to cooler or warmer outliers. Updated runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from agencies including MetService and international models points to a low near 12°C in Wellington on September 6, driven by a strengthening northerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front that brings widespread cloud, rain, and dew points around 11–13°C. This setup limits nocturnal radiative cooling while winds of 20–26 mph mix the boundary layer, keeping minimum temperatures from dropping into single digits or rising above the mid-teens. Model consensus remains tight on the overall pattern but shows small timing differences in frontal passage that could shift the exact overnight minimum by 1–2°C, explaining why market-implied probabilities cluster around 11–12°C buckets while still assigning meaningful weight to cooler or warmer outliers. Updated runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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