Missouri’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean rooted in its rural and suburban voter base, consistent historical margins, and recent redistricting that was upheld by the state supreme court in March 2026. Incumbent Republican Mark Alford, who secured over 71 percent in the prior cycle, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic primary contenders remain fragmented with limited statewide infrastructure. These structural factors, alongside solid-R race ratings from major forecasters, underpin trader consensus on a Republican victory. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, unusually high opposition turnout in the November 3 general election, or further legal challenges to district lines, though such developments appear low-probability based on current patterns.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMO-04 House Election Winner
MO-04 House Election Winner
$34,928 Wol.
$34,928 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
$34,928 Wol.
$34,928 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$20,778 Wol.
93%
Democratic Party
$14,150 Wol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean rooted in its rural and suburban voter base, consistent historical margins, and recent redistricting that was upheld by the state supreme court in March 2026. Incumbent Republican Mark Alford, who secured over 71 percent in the prior cycle, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic primary contenders remain fragmented with limited statewide infrastructure. These structural factors, alongside solid-R race ratings from major forecasters, underpin trader consensus on a Republican victory. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, unusually high opposition turnout in the November 3 general election, or further legal challenges to district lines, though such developments appear low-probability based on current patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Wolumen
$34,928Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean rooted in its rural and suburban voter base, consistent historical margins, and recent redistricting that was upheld by the state supreme court in March 2026. Incumbent Republican Mark Alford, who secured over 71 percent in the prior cycle, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic primary contenders remain fragmented with limited statewide infrastructure. These structural factors, alongside solid-R race ratings from major forecasters, underpin trader consensus on a Republican victory. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, unusually high opposition turnout in the November 3 general election, or further legal challenges to district lines, though such developments appear low-probability based on current patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$34,928Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean rooted in its rural and suburban voter base, consistent historical margins, and recent redistricting that was upheld by the state supreme court in March 2026. Incumbent Republican Mark Alford, who secured over 71 percent in the prior cycle, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the August 4 contest, while Democratic primary contenders remain fragmented with limited statewide infrastructure. These structural factors, alongside solid-R race ratings from major forecasters, underpin trader consensus on a Republican victory. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, unusually high opposition turnout in the November 3 general election, or further legal challenges to district lines, though such developments appear low-probability based on current patterns.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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