**Missouri’s 5th congressional district race features incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver facing Republican nominee Rick Brattin under the 2022 district lines for the November 3 general election.** The Missouri Supreme Court’s September 3–4 rulings blocked the 2025 redrawn map—used in the August 4 primaries—from applying in November, ordering the prior boundaries back into effect pending voter approval of a referendum also placed on the ballot. Those older lines encompass a more Democratic-leaning Kansas City area where Cleaver has consistently won by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Traders appear to view the state court decision as the operative framework for the general election, producing the strong Democratic implied probability. The state has appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court seeking a stay, citing administrative disruption from switching maps between primary and general, but no federal ruling has altered the status as of early September. Brattin’s primary victory and the new map’s Republican tilt are now secondary to the court-mandated reversion, which structurally advantages Cleaver absent further intervention. The November referendum outcome could affect future cycles but does not change the immediate contest.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMO-05 House Election Winner
MO-05 House Election Winner
$18,985 Wol.
$18,985 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
85%
Republican Party
16%
$18,985 Wol.
$18,985 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,191 Wol.
85%
Republican Party
$12,794 Wol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Missouri’s 5th congressional district race features incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver facing Republican nominee Rick Brattin under the 2022 district lines for the November 3 general election.** The Missouri Supreme Court’s September 3–4 rulings blocked the 2025 redrawn map—used in the August 4 primaries—from applying in November, ordering the prior boundaries back into effect pending voter approval of a referendum also placed on the ballot. Those older lines encompass a more Democratic-leaning Kansas City area where Cleaver has consistently won by double-digit margins in recent cycles.
Traders appear to view the state court decision as the operative framework for the general election, producing the strong Democratic implied probability. The state has appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court seeking a stay, citing administrative disruption from switching maps between primary and general, but no federal ruling has altered the status as of early September. Brattin’s primary victory and the new map’s Republican tilt are now secondary to the court-mandated reversion, which structurally advantages Cleaver absent further intervention. The November referendum outcome could affect future cycles but does not change the immediate contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
Wolumen
$18,985Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Missouri’s 5th congressional district race features incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver facing Republican nominee Rick Brattin under the 2022 district lines for the November 3 general election.** The Missouri Supreme Court’s September 3–4 rulings blocked the 2025 redrawn map—used in the August 4 primaries—from applying in November, ordering the prior boundaries back into effect pending voter approval of a referendum also placed on the ballot. Those older lines encompass a more Democratic-leaning Kansas City area where Cleaver has consistently won by double-digit margins in recent cycles.
Traders appear to view the state court decision as the operative framework for the general election, producing the strong Democratic implied probability. The state has appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court seeking a stay, citing administrative disruption from switching maps between primary and general, but no federal ruling has altered the status as of early September. Brattin’s primary victory and the new map’s Republican tilt are now secondary to the court-mandated reversion, which structurally advantages Cleaver absent further intervention. The November referendum outcome could affect future cycles but does not change the immediate contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$18,985Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...**Missouri’s 5th congressional district race features incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver facing Republican nominee Rick Brattin under the 2022 district lines for the November 3 general election.** The Missouri Supreme Court’s September 3–4 rulings blocked the 2025 redrawn map—used in the August 4 primaries—from applying in November, ordering the prior boundaries back into effect pending voter approval of a referendum also placed on the ballot. Those older lines encompass a more Democratic-leaning Kansas City area where Cleaver has consistently won by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Traders appear to view the state court decision as the operative framework for the general election, producing the strong Democratic implied probability. The state has appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court seeking a stay, citing administrative disruption from switching maps between primary and general, but no federal ruling has altered the status as of early September. Brattin’s primary victory and the new map’s Republican tilt are now secondary to the court-mandated reversion, which structurally advantages Cleaver absent further intervention. The November referendum outcome could affect future cycles but does not change the immediate contest.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania