Denny Tamaki holds the leading position in the September 13, 2026, Okinawa gubernatorial election due to his incumbency and consistent opposition to relocating the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma to Henoko, a stance that has historically resonated with local voters prioritizing reduced military footprint. Genta Koja, backed by the Liberal Democratic Party and favoring the relocation plan, trails as the main challenger after his January endorsement, while other listed candidates remain marginal. Trader pricing reflects Tamaki's edge amid post-February 2026 national election shifts that have tempered his support, leaving the race competitive with roughly one month remaining. Both frontrunners lack decisive new momentum on core issues like economic development versus security policy, and the outcome hinges on turnout among base-opposition and centrist blocs in this closely watched contest.