Skip to main content
icon for 2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd mais quente já registrado?

2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd mais quente já registrado?

icon for 2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd mais quente já registrado?

2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd mais quente já registrado?

Ended: mai 10

Ended: mai 10

3º mais quente 100.0%

Mais quente já registrado <1%

Segundo mais quente <1%

4º ou menos <1%

Polymarket

$96,545 Vol.

3º mais quente 100.0%

Mais quente já registrado <1%

Segundo mais quente <1%

4º ou menos <1%

Polymarket

$96,545 Vol.

Mais quente já registrado

$13,565 Vol.

Não

Segundo mais quente

$24,931 Vol.

Não

3º mais quente

$20,272 Vol.

Sim

4º ou menos

$37,777 Vol.

Não

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information and Copernicus Climate Change Service released preliminary data confirming April 2026 as the third-warmest April globally on record, with surface air temperature anomalies tying prior peaks like 2020 and 2016 at approximately 0.52°C above the 1991–2020 baseline in Copernicus datasets and aligning in NOAA's global land-ocean index. This positioning, driven by persistent anthropogenic warming amid a transitioning ENSO from El Niño, underpins the market's 100% implied probability on "3rd hottest," reflecting trader consensus on verified observational records spanning 145 years. Realistic challenges include rare post-preliminary revisions from data quality checks or Arctic/Antarctic measurement updates, though rankings seldom shift after initial agency briefings expected this week.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.

Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$96,545
Data de Término
10 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Resultado proposto: Não

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Não

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information and Copernicus Climate Change Service released preliminary data confirming April 2026 as the third-warmest April globally on record, with surface air temperature anomalies tying prior peaks like 2020 and 2016 at approximately 0.52°C above the 1991–2020 baseline in Copernicus datasets and aligning in NOAA's global land-ocean index. This positioning, driven by persistent anthropogenic warming amid a transitioning ENSO from El Niño, underpins the market's 100% implied probability on "3rd hottest," reflecting trader consensus on verified observational records spanning 145 years. Realistic challenges include rare post-preliminary revisions from data quality checks or Arctic/Antarctic measurement updates, though rankings seldom shift after initial agency briefings expected this week.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.

Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$96,545
Data de Término
10 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Resultado proposto: Não

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Não

Relacionado

icon for Julho de 2026 será o mais quente já registrado?

Julho de 2026 será o mais quente já registrado?

89%
Sim
icon for Algum mês de 2026 será o mais quente já registrado?

Algum mês de 2026 será o mais quente já registrado?

93%
Sim
icon for A temperatura global aumentará entre 1,20ºC e 1,24ºC em julho de 2026?

A temperatura global aumentará entre 1,20ºC e 1,24ºC em julho de 2026?

83%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd mais quente já registrado?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "3º mais quente" at 100%, followed by "Mais quente já registrado" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd mais quente já registrado?" has generated $96.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd mais quente já registrado?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd mais quente já registrado?" is "3º mais quente" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mais quente já registrado" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd mais quente já registrado?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.