The heavily Democratic lean of California's 15th congressional district underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party. Incumbent Representative Kevin Mullin, first elected in 2022, won his last general election by a wide margin in a seat with a Cook Political Report rating of Solid D and a partisan voting index showing substantial Democratic advantage. The June 2, 2026 top-two primary features multiple Democratic candidates alongside one Republican and an independent, making a Democratic nominee in the November general election the near-certain outcome absent major shifts. No significant developments in the past 30 days have altered the race's fundamentals. A late national political realignment, unusually high Republican turnout, or primary surprise could narrow the gap, though the district's structural advantages and historical voting patterns present substantial barriers to such changes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Casa do CA-15
Vencedor da eleição para a Casa do CA-15
$116,213 Vol.
$116,213 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
96%
Partido Republicano
4%
$116,213 Vol.
$116,213 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$92,679 Vol.
96%
Partido Republicano
$23,534 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic lean of California's 15th congressional district underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party. Incumbent Representative Kevin Mullin, first elected in 2022, won his last general election by a wide margin in a seat with a Cook Political Report rating of Solid D and a partisan voting index showing substantial Democratic advantage. The June 2, 2026 top-two primary features multiple Democratic candidates alongside one Republican and an independent, making a Democratic nominee in the November general election the near-certain outcome absent major shifts. No significant developments in the past 30 days have altered the race's fundamentals. A late national political realignment, unusually high Republican turnout, or primary surprise could narrow the gap, though the district's structural advantages and historical voting patterns present substantial barriers to such changes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$116,213Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic lean of California's 15th congressional district underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party. Incumbent Representative Kevin Mullin, first elected in 2022, won his last general election by a wide margin in a seat with a Cook Political Report rating of Solid D and a partisan voting index showing substantial Democratic advantage. The June 2, 2026 top-two primary features multiple Democratic candidates alongside one Republican and an independent, making a Democratic nominee in the November general election the near-certain outcome absent major shifts. No significant developments in the past 30 days have altered the race's fundamentals. A late national political realignment, unusually high Republican turnout, or primary surprise could narrow the gap, though the district's structural advantages and historical voting patterns present substantial barriers to such changes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$116,213Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic lean of California's 15th congressional district underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party. Incumbent Representative Kevin Mullin, first elected in 2022, won his last general election by a wide margin in a seat with a Cook Political Report rating of Solid D and a partisan voting index showing substantial Democratic advantage. The June 2, 2026 top-two primary features multiple Democratic candidates alongside one Republican and an independent, making a Democratic nominee in the November general election the near-certain outcome absent major shifts. No significant developments in the past 30 days have altered the race's fundamentals. A late national political realignment, unusually high Republican turnout, or primary surprise could narrow the gap, though the district's structural advantages and historical voting patterns present substantial barriers to such changes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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