**Congressional leaders have advanced continuing resolutions (CRs) in both chambers to extend current funding levels through early December 2026, directly addressing the September 30 deadline.** The House passed a clean CR through December 4, while the Senate approved a version through December 11 that includes targeted provisions on grants and other matters. These actions occurred ahead of the August recess and the November midterms, reflecting a shared priority to sidestep another appropriations lapse after multiple FY2026 funding gaps. Bipartisan appropriations committee negotiations and procedural steps, including early markup of full-year bills in the House, further reduce near-term shutdown risk. With both chambers having cleared stopgap measures and little indication of new partisan standoffs blocking reconciliation before October 1, traders assign an 88% probability to “No” on a lapse. Any final enactment would keep agencies funded at existing levels while preserving the path for later appropriations work.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado12% chance
NOVO
NOVO
1 out 2026
12% chance
NOVO
NOVO
1 out 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Congressional leaders have advanced continuing resolutions (CRs) in both chambers to extend current funding levels through early December 2026, directly addressing the September 30 deadline.** The House passed a clean CR through December 4, while the Senate approved a version through December 11 that includes targeted provisions on grants and other matters. These actions occurred ahead of the August recess and the November midterms, reflecting a shared priority to sidestep another appropriations lapse after multiple FY2026 funding gaps.
Bipartisan appropriations committee negotiations and procedural steps, including early markup of full-year bills in the House, further reduce near-term shutdown risk. With both chambers having cleared stopgap measures and little indication of new partisan standoffs blocking reconciliation before October 1, traders assign an 88% probability to “No” on a lapse. Any final enactment would keep agencies funded at existing levels while preserving the path for later appropriations work.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,340Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Congressional leaders have advanced continuing resolutions (CRs) in both chambers to extend current funding levels through early December 2026, directly addressing the September 30 deadline.** The House passed a clean CR through December 4, while the Senate approved a version through December 11 that includes targeted provisions on grants and other matters. These actions occurred ahead of the August recess and the November midterms, reflecting a shared priority to sidestep another appropriations lapse after multiple FY2026 funding gaps.
Bipartisan appropriations committee negotiations and procedural steps, including early markup of full-year bills in the House, further reduce near-term shutdown risk. With both chambers having cleared stopgap measures and little indication of new partisan standoffs blocking reconciliation before October 1, traders assign an 88% probability to “No” on a lapse. Any final enactment would keep agencies funded at existing levels while preserving the path for later appropriations work.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,340Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Congressional leaders have advanced continuing resolutions (CRs) in both chambers to extend current funding levels through early December 2026, directly addressing the September 30 deadline.** The House passed a clean CR through December 4, while the Senate approved a version through December 11 that includes targeted provisions on grants and other matters. These actions occurred ahead of the August recess and the November midterms, reflecting a shared priority to sidestep another appropriations lapse after multiple FY2026 funding gaps. Bipartisan appropriations committee negotiations and procedural steps, including early markup of full-year bills in the House, further reduce near-term shutdown risk. With both chambers having cleared stopgap measures and little indication of new partisan standoffs blocking reconciliation before October 1, traders assign an 88% probability to “No” on a lapse. Any final enactment would keep agencies funded at existing levels while preserving the path for later appropriations work.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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