The fragmented field in Guinea-Bissau’s December 2026 presidential election reflects ongoing instability after the November 2025 coup annulled the prior vote, installed a military transitional government, and sidelined several established figures. Fernando Dias da Costa leads trader pricing due to his strong opposition alliances, including PAIGC backing, and his prior claim of victory in the disputed contest. Umaro Sissoco Embaló trails despite name recognition, constrained by exile and the coup’s aftermath. The recent constitutional referendum, which passed with roughly 70 percent support despite a PAIGC boycott, expands presidential authority over appointments and parliament while imposing residency requirements that could affect eligibility. With over a dozen candidates splitting support and no dominant coalition yet formed, outcomes hinge on whether opposition forces consolidate or the transitional authorities shape the final field before the December vote.