Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport—the market's official resolution station—anchored by real-time China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations showing 29.6°C as of late afternoon on May 5 under clear skies (CAVOK conditions) and light southwest winds of 6 m/s, enabling efficient daytime boundary-layer heating from overnight lows near 17°C. Converging CMA, ECMWF, and GFS model ensembles precisely forecast this peak amid a persistent high-pressure ridge driving May's typical spring warming, where historical averages of 27°C often reach 30°C. Realistic challenges include abrupt afternoon cloud cover capping at 29°C or prolonged sunshine nudging to 31°C, though final hourly data from CMA and Weather Underground stations, expected soon as sunset nears, will confirm amid minimal uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on May 5?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 5?
30°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
31°C <1%
$237,613 Vol.
$237,613 Vol.
5 mai 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
31°C <1%
$237,613 Vol.
$237,613 Vol.
5 mai 2026
28°C or below
$25,342 Vol.
No
29°C
$66,794 Vol.
No
30°C
$18,990 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$11,991 Vol.
No
32°C
$18,798 Vol.
No
33°C
$18,414 Vol.
No
34°C
$16,486 Vol.
No
35°C
$16,524 Vol.
No
36°C
$18,134 Vol.
No
37°C
$12,552 Vol.
No
38°C or higher
$13,587 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport—the market's official resolution station—anchored by real-time China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations showing 29.6°C as of late afternoon on May 5 under clear skies (CAVOK conditions) and light southwest winds of 6 m/s, enabling efficient daytime boundary-layer heating from overnight lows near 17°C. Converging CMA, ECMWF, and GFS model ensembles precisely forecast this peak amid a persistent high-pressure ridge driving May's typical spring warming, where historical averages of 27°C often reach 30°C. Realistic challenges include abrupt afternoon cloud cover capping at 29°C or prolonged sunshine nudging to 31°C, though final hourly data from CMA and Weather Underground stations, expected soon as sunset nears, will confirm amid minimal uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Volume
$237,613Data de Término
5 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport—the market's official resolution station—anchored by real-time China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations showing 29.6°C as of late afternoon on May 5 under clear skies (CAVOK conditions) and light southwest winds of 6 m/s, enabling efficient daytime boundary-layer heating from overnight lows near 17°C. Converging CMA, ECMWF, and GFS model ensembles precisely forecast this peak amid a persistent high-pressure ridge driving May's typical spring warming, where historical averages of 27°C often reach 30°C. Realistic challenges include abrupt afternoon cloud cover capping at 29°C or prolonged sunshine nudging to 31°C, though final hourly data from CMA and Weather Underground stations, expected soon as sunset nears, will confirm amid minimal uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$237,613Data de Término
5 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 30°C high temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport—the market's official resolution station—anchored by real-time China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations showing 29.6°C as of late afternoon on May 5 under clear skies (CAVOK conditions) and light southwest winds of 6 m/s, enabling efficient daytime boundary-layer heating from overnight lows near 17°C. Converging CMA, ECMWF, and GFS model ensembles precisely forecast this peak amid a persistent high-pressure ridge driving May's typical spring warming, where historical averages of 27°C often reach 30°C. Realistic challenges include abrupt afternoon cloud cover capping at 29°C or prolonged sunshine nudging to 31°C, though final hourly data from CMA and Weather Underground stations, expected soon as sunset nears, will confirm amid minimal uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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