Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 40% probability for Chengdu's highest temperature reaching 21°C or higher on March 29, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts projecting a daytime high near 20°C amid mild southerly winds and ample sunshine. Recent observations show highs climbing steadily—18°C on March 27 and 20°C on March 28—reflecting a post-winter warming trend in Chengdu's subtropical monsoon climate, where March averages hover around 17–19°C but often spike with clear skies. Model ensembles indicate uncertainty, with a 20–22% spread favoring outcomes at 19–20°C due to potential afternoon convective heating or light cloud cover; hourly updates from official stations will refine this before evening resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 29?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 29?
21°C or higher 36%
20°C 25%
19°C 16%
18°C 11%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
4%
14°C
5%
15°C
7%
16°C
7%
17°C
7%
18°C
15%
19°C
22%
20°C
22%
21°C or higher
36%
21°C or higher 36%
20°C 25%
19°C 16%
18°C 11%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
4%
14°C
5%
15°C
7%
16°C
7%
17°C
7%
18°C
15%
19°C
22%
20°C
22%
21°C or higher
36%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 25, 2026, 6:27 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 40% probability for Chengdu's highest temperature reaching 21°C or higher on March 29, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecasts projecting a daytime high near 20°C amid mild southerly winds and ample sunshine. Recent observations show highs climbing steadily—18°C on March 27 and 20°C on March 28—reflecting a post-winter warming trend in Chengdu's subtropical monsoon climate, where March averages hover around 17–19°C but often spike with clear skies. Model ensembles indicate uncertainty, with a 20–22% spread favoring outcomes at 19–20°C due to potential afternoon convective heating or light cloud cover; hourly updates from official stations will refine this before evening resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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