Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a highest temperature of 17°C in Shanghai on March 26 (43.5% implied probability), with 18°C (22.5%) and 16°C (17%) close behind, reflecting ensemble weather model outputs from GFS and ECMWF that project mild spring conditions with highs clustered at 16-18°C. Shanghai's March climatology averages 15-17°C maxima, bolstered by recent southerly winds and above-normal daytime warmth—March 23 hit 18°C amid low pressure persistence. Latest China Meteorological Administration updates show minimal cold front risk, stabilizing these leading outcomes, though urban heat islands and cloud variability introduce forecast divergence beyond 72 hours. Traders eye tomorrow's model refresh for potential shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 26?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 26?
17°C 44%
18°C 22%
16°C 17%
19°C 10%
$51,157 Vol.
$51,157 Vol.
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
4%
16°C
17%
17°C
44%
18°C
22%
19°C
10%
20°C
2%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
<1%
17°C 44%
18°C 22%
16°C 17%
19°C 10%
$51,157 Vol.
$51,157 Vol.
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
4%
16°C
17%
17°C
44%
18°C
22%
19°C
10%
20°C
2%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:18 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a highest temperature of 17°C in Shanghai on March 26 (43.5% implied probability), with 18°C (22.5%) and 16°C (17%) close behind, reflecting ensemble weather model outputs from GFS and ECMWF that project mild spring conditions with highs clustered at 16-18°C. Shanghai's March climatology averages 15-17°C maxima, bolstered by recent southerly winds and above-normal daytime warmth—March 23 hit 18°C amid low pressure persistence. Latest China Meteorological Administration updates show minimal cold front risk, stabilizing these leading outcomes, though urban heat islands and cloud variability introduce forecast divergence beyond 72 hours. Traders eye tomorrow's model refresh for potential shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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