Trader consensus favors a Shanghai high of 16°C at 29.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering around 15-17°C for March 27, reflecting a mild late-winter pattern with highs matching the city's 30-year March average of about 15.5°C. Differentiating factors include model spread from a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing southerly flow, tempered by increasing cloud cover and potential light precipitation per CMA updates, which suppress peaks by 1-2°C compared to clearer scenarios favoring 17-18°C. Recent observations of 14°C highs earlier this week and urban heat island moderation add uncertainty, with traders eyeing 00Z model runs for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Xangai em 27 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Xangai em 27 de março?
16°C 31%
17°C 25%
15°C 18%
18°C 13%
11°C ou menos
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
6%
14°C
10%
15°C
18%
16°C
31%
17°C
25%
18°C
13%
19°C
4%
20°C
2%
21°C ou mais
2%
16°C 31%
17°C 25%
15°C 18%
18°C 13%
11°C ou menos
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
6%
14°C
10%
15°C
18%
16°C
31%
17°C
25%
18°C
13%
19°C
4%
20°C
2%
21°C ou mais
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a Shanghai high of 16°C at 29.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering around 15-17°C for March 27, reflecting a mild late-winter pattern with highs matching the city's 30-year March average of about 15.5°C. Differentiating factors include model spread from a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing southerly flow, tempered by increasing cloud cover and potential light precipitation per CMA updates, which suppress peaks by 1-2°C compared to clearer scenarios favoring 17-18°C. Recent observations of 14°C highs earlier this week and urban heat island moderation add uncertainty, with traders eyeing 00Z model runs for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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