Trader sentiment for Tokyo's highest temperature on March 25 clusters tightly around 12–17°C, with 12°C leading at 29% implied probability due to lingering forecast model spread from Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) ensembles. Recent runs show a mild high-pressure ridge favoring diurnal maximums of 14–16°C, elevating 17°C or higher odds to 25%, while cooler 10–13°C outcomes (collectively ~62%) reflect potential cold frontal intrusions. Historical March 25 highs average 13°C, but above-normal anomalies from a southward-shifted jet stream differentiate warmer bets; however, low-level moisture and cloud cover introduce uncertainty, keeping probabilities balanced as final model updates loom.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Tóquio no dia 25 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Tóquio no dia 25 de março?
12°C 28%
13°C 22%
14°C 18%
10°C 17%
7°C ou menos
2%
8°C
12%
9°C
14%
10°C
17%
11°C
17%
12°C
28%
13°C
22%
14°C
18%
15°C
17%
16°C
17%
17°C ou mais
17%
12°C 28%
13°C 22%
14°C 18%
10°C 17%
7°C ou menos
2%
8°C
12%
9°C
14%
10°C
17%
11°C
17%
12°C
28%
13°C
22%
14°C
18%
15°C
17%
16°C
17%
17°C ou mais
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Tokyo's highest temperature on March 25 clusters tightly around 12–17°C, with 12°C leading at 29% implied probability due to lingering forecast model spread from Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) ensembles. Recent runs show a mild high-pressure ridge favoring diurnal maximums of 14–16°C, elevating 17°C or higher odds to 25%, while cooler 10–13°C outcomes (collectively ~62%) reflect potential cold frontal intrusions. Historical March 25 highs average 13°C, but above-normal anomalies from a southward-shifted jet stream differentiate warmer bets; however, low-level moisture and cloud cover introduce uncertainty, keeping probabilities balanced as final model updates loom.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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