Trader sentiment for Wuhan's highest temperature on March 25 hinges on the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging tightly around 20-21°C, with minor divergences from boundary layer parameterization differences driving the near-even odds between 20°C (25.5%), 22°C or higher (25.5%), and 21°C (22.0%). Recent model runs indicate a ridge of high pressure ushering mild southerly advection, elevating highs above the March climatological average of 16-18°C, though persistent low-level clouds could cap peaks at 19°C (19.5%). Historical data shows interannual variability of ±4°C, amplified by urban heat island effects in Wuhan, while upcoming Chinese Meteorological Administration updates by March 24 may sharpen resolution amid low 12°C or below odds (2.0%).
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 25?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 25?
20°C 26%
22°C or higher 26%
21°C 22%
19°C 20%
12°C or below
2%
13°C
12%
14°C
14%
15°C
16%
16°C
17%
17°C
17%
18°C
17%
19°C
20%
20°C
26%
21°C
22%
22°C or higher
26%
20°C 26%
22°C or higher 26%
21°C 22%
19°C 20%
12°C or below
2%
13°C
12%
14°C
14%
15°C
16%
16°C
17%
17°C
17%
18°C
17%
19°C
20%
20°C
26%
21°C
22%
22°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:41 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Wuhan's highest temperature on March 25 hinges on the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging tightly around 20-21°C, with minor divergences from boundary layer parameterization differences driving the near-even odds between 20°C (25.5%), 22°C or higher (25.5%), and 21°C (22.0%). Recent model runs indicate a ridge of high pressure ushering mild southerly advection, elevating highs above the March climatological average of 16-18°C, though persistent low-level clouds could cap peaks at 19°C (19.5%). Historical data shows interannual variability of ±4°C, amplified by urban heat island effects in Wuhan, while upcoming Chinese Meteorological Administration updates by March 24 may sharpen resolution amid low 12°C or below odds (2.0%).
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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