Trader sentiment on Los Angeles' highest temperature March 25 tilts toward 88°F or higher at 17.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 82-83°F at 15.5%, reflecting model ensemble uncertainty from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF runs showing a high-pressure ridge potentially amplifying downslope warming while marine layer persistence caps extremes. Recent 00Z updates indicate 500mb heights 10-20 decameters above average, favoring 80s, but diurnally varying coastal advection and weak onshore flow differentiate outcomes—stronger subsidence boosts 88+ odds, while stratus decks favor sub-80°F bins like 72-73°F at 10%. Historical March maxima average 72°F, with rare 90°F outliers tied to similar ridging; watch 12Z NWS forecast for resolution cues.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Los Angeles on March 25?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 25?
82-83°F 16%
69°F or below 13%
84-85°F 13%
86-87°F 11%
69°F or below
13%
70-71°F
9%
72-73°F
10%
74-75°F
9%
76-77°F
9%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
8%
82-83°F
16%
84-85°F
13%
86-87°F
11%
88°F or higher
8%
82-83°F 16%
69°F or below 13%
84-85°F 13%
86-87°F 11%
69°F or below
13%
70-71°F
9%
72-73°F
10%
74-75°F
9%
76-77°F
9%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
8%
82-83°F
16%
84-85°F
13%
86-87°F
11%
88°F or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Los Angeles' highest temperature March 25 tilts toward 88°F or higher at 17.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 82-83°F at 15.5%, reflecting model ensemble uncertainty from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF runs showing a high-pressure ridge potentially amplifying downslope warming while marine layer persistence caps extremes. Recent 00Z updates indicate 500mb heights 10-20 decameters above average, favoring 80s, but diurnally varying coastal advection and weak onshore flow differentiate outcomes—stronger subsidence boosts 88+ odds, while stratus decks favor sub-80°F bins like 72-73°F at 10%. Historical March maxima average 72°F, with rare 90°F outliers tied to similar ridging; watch 12Z NWS forecast for resolution cues.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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