Trader sentiment for Chengdu's highest temperature on March 25 reflects deep uncertainty in ensemble weather models, with GFS and ECMWF runs diverging on the influence of a weakening cold front from the north versus potential southerly warmth advection. Market-implied odds cluster bimodal at 25.5% for 14°C or below—tied to lingering cloud cover and gusty winds suppressing highs—and 24°C or higher, betting on rapid clearing and solar insolation boosting peaks. Mid-range outcomes (15–23°C) split evenly around 13–17.5%, mirroring historical March averages of 16–18°C amid spring variability. Key differentiator: 12Z model updates today could sharpen consensus on boundary layer mixing and diurnal heating, per China Meteorological Administration guidance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 25?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 25?
16°C 18%
17°C 18%
18°C 18%
19°C 18%
14°C or below
9%
15°C
11%
16°C
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
18%
21°C
17%
22°C
15%
23°C
13%
24°C or higher
11%
16°C 18%
17°C 18%
18°C 18%
19°C 18%
14°C or below
9%
15°C
11%
16°C
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
18%
21°C
17%
22°C
15%
23°C
13%
24°C or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:28 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Chengdu's highest temperature on March 25 reflects deep uncertainty in ensemble weather models, with GFS and ECMWF runs diverging on the influence of a weakening cold front from the north versus potential southerly warmth advection. Market-implied odds cluster bimodal at 25.5% for 14°C or below—tied to lingering cloud cover and gusty winds suppressing highs—and 24°C or higher, betting on rapid clearing and solar insolation boosting peaks. Mid-range outcomes (15–23°C) split evenly around 13–17.5%, mirroring historical March averages of 16–18°C amid spring variability. Key differentiator: 12Z model updates today could sharpen consensus on boundary layer mixing and diurnal heating, per China Meteorological Administration guidance.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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