Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a high of 11°C (28.5% implied probability) for London's March 25 maximum temperature, driven by the UK Met Office's latest forecast indicating mild conditions under partial high-pressure influence, with daytime highs clustering 10-12°C amid light southerly winds. Differentiating factors include ensemble model spreads from ECMWF and GFS: warmer 12-14°C outcomes hinge on clearer skies and stronger solar insolation, while cooler 8-9°C bets reflect potential cloudier Atlantic inflows or overnight cold pools. Historical March 25 averages hover near 11°C, but recent jet stream undulations add uncertainty, with no extreme signals from official outlooks keeping tails below 3%. Upcoming hourly updates could shift odds as resolution nears.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Londres no dia 25 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Londres no dia 25 de março?
11°C 34%
10°C 26%
9°C 19%
8°C 19%
5°C ou menos
2%
6°C
18%
7°C
18%
8°C
19%
9°C
19%
10°C
26%
11°C
29%
12°C
19%
13°C
18%
14°C
18%
15°C ou mais
2%
11°C 34%
10°C 26%
9°C 19%
8°C 19%
5°C ou menos
2%
6°C
18%
7°C
18%
8°C
19%
9°C
19%
10°C
26%
11°C
29%
12°C
19%
13°C
18%
14°C
18%
15°C ou mais
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a high of 11°C (28.5% implied probability) for London's March 25 maximum temperature, driven by the UK Met Office's latest forecast indicating mild conditions under partial high-pressure influence, with daytime highs clustering 10-12°C amid light southerly winds. Differentiating factors include ensemble model spreads from ECMWF and GFS: warmer 12-14°C outcomes hinge on clearer skies and stronger solar insolation, while cooler 8-9°C bets reflect potential cloudier Atlantic inflows or overnight cold pools. Historical March 25 averages hover near 11°C, but recent jet stream undulations add uncertainty, with no extreme signals from official outlooks keeping tails below 3%. Upcoming hourly updates could shift odds as resolution nears.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions