Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 13-15°C as London's Heathrow maximum temperature on March 23, with 14°C leading at 34%, reflecting the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering tightly around 13.5-14.5°C amid a high-pressure ridge forecast over southern UK. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences: ECMWF's control run edges toward 14°C under clearer skies and light southerlies, while GFS variants hint at 15°C if winds strengthen, versus cooler 13°C outcomes from cloudier UKMO scenarios. March climatology at Heathrow averages 12°C max, but recent 00Z runs show a slight warm bias, narrowing uncertainty; watch tomorrow's Met Office update for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Londres no dia 23 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Londres no dia 23 de março?
14°C 31%
13°C 29%
15°C 21%
16°C 8.9%
$10,336 Vol.
$10,336 Vol.
9°C ou menos
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
10%
13°C
29%
14°C
34%
15°C
21%
16°C
9%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C ou mais
1%
14°C 31%
13°C 29%
15°C 21%
16°C 8.9%
$10,336 Vol.
$10,336 Vol.
9°C ou menos
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
10%
13°C
29%
14°C
34%
15°C
21%
16°C
9%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C ou mais
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 13-15°C as London's Heathrow maximum temperature on March 23, with 14°C leading at 34%, reflecting the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means clustering tightly around 13.5-14.5°C amid a high-pressure ridge forecast over southern UK. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences: ECMWF's control run edges toward 14°C under clearer skies and light southerlies, while GFS variants hint at 15°C if winds strengthen, versus cooler 13°C outcomes from cloudier UKMO scenarios. March climatology at Heathrow averages 12°C max, but recent 00Z runs show a slight warm bias, narrowing uncertainty; watch tomorrow's Met Office update for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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