Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 86-91°F highs for Austin on March 24, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble means projecting peaks of 88-90°F amid a robust upper-level ridge fostering subsidence warming and clear skies. Differentiating the top bins—86-87°F (21%), 88-89°F (21%), 90-91°F (21%)—are subtle model divergences: GFS leans hotter with ridge axis farther north enhancing solar insolation, while ECMWF shows slight cooling from increased mid-level clouds. NWS Austin's official forecast pins 89°F with 10% precip odds, well above the 74°F March 24 climatology due to +15°F anomaly from soil moisture deficits. Traders eye 12z runs for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Austin on March 24?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 24?
88-89°F 35%
86-87°F 21%
90-91°F 21%
84-85°F 20%
79°F or below
9%
80-81°F
11%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
21%
88-89°F
21%
90-91°F
21%
92-93°F
19%
94-95°F
19%
96-97°F
18%
98°F or higher
9%
88-89°F 35%
86-87°F 21%
90-91°F 21%
84-85°F 20%
79°F or below
9%
80-81°F
11%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
21%
88-89°F
21%
90-91°F
21%
92-93°F
19%
94-95°F
19%
96-97°F
18%
98°F or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 86-91°F highs for Austin on March 24, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble means projecting peaks of 88-90°F amid a robust upper-level ridge fostering subsidence warming and clear skies. Differentiating the top bins—86-87°F (21%), 88-89°F (21%), 90-91°F (21%)—are subtle model divergences: GFS leans hotter with ridge axis farther north enhancing solar insolation, while ECMWF shows slight cooling from increased mid-level clouds. NWS Austin's official forecast pins 89°F with 10% precip odds, well above the 74°F March 24 climatology due to +15°F anomaly from soil moisture deficits. Traders eye 12z runs for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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