Trader consensus favors mid-80s highs in Houston on March 24, with 84-85°F leading at 27% implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service guidance pinpointing a high near 85°F under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies. Major models like GFS, ECMWF, and HRRR converge on 83-87°F peaks from enhanced diurnal heating and low soil moisture post-recent rains, differentiating leaders from cooler 82-83°F (earlier sea breeze influx) or hotter 86-87°F (prolonged afternoon mixing). Uncertainty stems from boundary layer evolution and urban heat island amplification, with historical March norms around 75°F underscoring the warm anomaly. Key watch: afternoon sounding data for convective inhibition.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Houston on March 24?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 24?
84-85°F 32%
82-83°F 27%
86-87°F 17%
90-91°F 15%
75°F or below
8%
76-77°F
13%
78-79°F
10%
80-81°F
16%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
32%
86-87°F
16%
88-89°F
12%
90-91°F
14%
92-93°F
9%
94°F or higher
8%
84-85°F 32%
82-83°F 27%
86-87°F 17%
90-91°F 15%
75°F or below
8%
76-77°F
13%
78-79°F
10%
80-81°F
16%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
32%
86-87°F
16%
88-89°F
12%
90-91°F
14%
92-93°F
9%
94°F or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:14 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors mid-80s highs in Houston on March 24, with 84-85°F leading at 27% implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service guidance pinpointing a high near 85°F under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies. Major models like GFS, ECMWF, and HRRR converge on 83-87°F peaks from enhanced diurnal heating and low soil moisture post-recent rains, differentiating leaders from cooler 82-83°F (earlier sea breeze influx) or hotter 86-87°F (prolonged afternoon mixing). Uncertainty stems from boundary layer evolution and urban heat island amplification, with historical March norms around 75°F underscoring the warm anomaly. Key watch: afternoon sounding data for convective inhibition.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions