Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in NOAA's Weather Prediction Center ensembles for Denver's March 24 high, with GFS and ECMWF models clustering around 78-83°F due to a persistent upper-level ridge amplifying downslope warming from the Rockies. The 78-79°F edge (28.5%) stems from slightly cooler Euro model biases incorporating potential afternoon cirrus clouds reducing insolation, while 82-83°F (28.0%) gains from GFS runs showing clearer skies and stronger compressional heating. Historical March norms hover near 57°F, but this anomalous heat dome—fueled by stratospheric warming influences—elevates risks for 84°F+ if winds stay light below 10 mph. Key differentiator: 18z model updates today could shift odds as boundary layer forecasts refine.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Denver on March 24?
Highest temperature in Denver on March 24?
78-79°F 30%
82-83°F 28%
80-81°F 25%
86-87°F 15%
69°F or below
1%
70-71°F
10%
72-73°F
14%
74-75°F
6%
76-77°F
12%
78-79°F
30%
80-81°F
15%
82-83°F
28%
84-85°F
14%
86-87°F
15%
88°F or higher
12%
78-79°F 30%
82-83°F 28%
80-81°F 25%
86-87°F 15%
69°F or below
1%
70-71°F
10%
72-73°F
14%
74-75°F
6%
76-77°F
12%
78-79°F
30%
80-81°F
15%
82-83°F
28%
84-85°F
14%
86-87°F
15%
88°F or higher
12%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Denver International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/denver/KDEN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/denver/KDENResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/denver/KDENResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in NOAA's Weather Prediction Center ensembles for Denver's March 24 high, with GFS and ECMWF models clustering around 78-83°F due to a persistent upper-level ridge amplifying downslope warming from the Rockies. The 78-79°F edge (28.5%) stems from slightly cooler Euro model biases incorporating potential afternoon cirrus clouds reducing insolation, while 82-83°F (28.0%) gains from GFS runs showing clearer skies and stronger compressional heating. Historical March norms hover near 57°F, but this anomalous heat dome—fueled by stratospheric warming influences—elevates risks for 84°F+ if winds stay light below 10 mph. Key differentiator: 18z model updates today could shift odds as boundary layer forecasts refine.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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