Trader sentiment on Milan's highest temperature on March 24 tilts toward 21°C at 26% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 20-22°C peaks amid a strengthening upper-level ridge over central Europe advecting mild southerly airflow. This setup favors above-normal warmth—seasonal March highs average 13-14°C—boosting odds for 21°C and 22°C or higher, while closely trailing 16°C reflects uncertainty in Po Valley low-level moisture potentially capping highs via cloud cover and weak cold advection. GFS perturbations diverge more than ECMWF on frontal timing, explaining the tight clustering across 14-22°C outcomes as models refine ahead of the date.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Milan on March 24?
Highest temperature in Milan on March 24?
21°C 20%
17°C 16%
19°C 15%
18°C 13%
12°C or below
4%
13°C
12%
14°C
7%
15°C
4%
16°C
17%
17°C
15%
18°C
13%
19°C
15%
20°C
5%
21°C
26%
22°C or higher
9%
21°C 20%
17°C 16%
19°C 15%
18°C 13%
12°C or below
4%
13°C
12%
14°C
7%
15°C
4%
16°C
17%
17°C
15%
18°C
13%
19°C
15%
20°C
5%
21°C
26%
22°C or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:27 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Milan's highest temperature on March 24 tilts toward 21°C at 26% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 20-22°C peaks amid a strengthening upper-level ridge over central Europe advecting mild southerly airflow. This setup favors above-normal warmth—seasonal March highs average 13-14°C—boosting odds for 21°C and 22°C or higher, while closely trailing 16°C reflects uncertainty in Po Valley low-level moisture potentially capping highs via cloud cover and weak cold advection. GFS perturbations diverge more than ECMWF on frontal timing, explaining the tight clustering across 14-22°C outcomes as models refine ahead of the date.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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