Trader consensus heavily favors a Taipei high of 28°C (46.5% implied probability) driven by the Central Weather Administration's latest forecast, which projects clear skies and a subtropical high-pressure ridge fostering adiabatic subsidence and temperatures peaking near 28°C on March 24. This aligns with recent observations—Taipei hit 27°C yesterday amid lingering El Niño warmth—and ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS converging on 27-29°C amid low humidity and light winds. Historical March averages hover at 23-25°C, but urban heat island effects and seasonal transition amplify upside risks, positioning 26-27°C as strong contenders (17-16.5%) while extremes like 30°C+ remain under 11.5% absent heatwave signals. Monitor afternoon CWA updates for potential shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Taipei on March 24?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 24?
28°C 49%
26°C 17%
27°C 17%
25°C 16%
21°C or below
11%
22°C
12%
23°C
14%
24°C
9%
25°C
16%
26°C
17%
27°C
17%
28°C
47%
29°C
14%
30°C
12%
31°C or higher
11%
28°C 49%
26°C 17%
27°C 17%
25°C 16%
21°C or below
11%
22°C
12%
23°C
14%
24°C
9%
25°C
16%
26°C
17%
27°C
17%
28°C
47%
29°C
14%
30°C
12%
31°C or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a Taipei high of 28°C (46.5% implied probability) driven by the Central Weather Administration's latest forecast, which projects clear skies and a subtropical high-pressure ridge fostering adiabatic subsidence and temperatures peaking near 28°C on March 24. This aligns with recent observations—Taipei hit 27°C yesterday amid lingering El Niño warmth—and ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS converging on 27-29°C amid low humidity and light winds. Historical March averages hover at 23-25°C, but urban heat island effects and seasonal transition amplify upside risks, positioning 26-27°C as strong contenders (17-16.5%) while extremes like 30°C+ remain under 11.5% absent heatwave signals. Monitor afternoon CWA updates for potential shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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