Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Miami's highest temperature on March 24 clustering around 82-85°F, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast of a high near 84°F under a dominant high-pressure ridge fostering sunny skies and light winds. Differentiating the razor-thin 82-83°F (30%) and 84-85°F (26.5%) leads are subtle model divergences: GFS shows stronger afternoon boundary layer mixing for potential 85°F peaks, while ECMWF implies slightly tempered heating from delayed sea breeze onset amid warm sea surface temperatures near 78°F. Lower odds for 80°F or below reflect above-normal 500mb heights minimizing cool air advection, though urban heat island effects and exact insolation could swing the diurnal maximum by 1-2°F.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Miami on March 24?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 24?
82-83°F 30%
80-81°F 23%
84-85°F 21%
78-79°F 13%
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
5%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
23%
82-83°F
30%
84-85°F
27%
86-87°F
11%
88-89°F
8%
90-91°F
5%
92°F or higher
4%
82-83°F 30%
80-81°F 23%
84-85°F 21%
78-79°F 13%
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
5%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
23%
82-83°F
30%
84-85°F
27%
86-87°F
11%
88-89°F
8%
90-91°F
5%
92°F or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Miami's highest temperature on March 24 clustering around 82-85°F, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast of a high near 84°F under a dominant high-pressure ridge fostering sunny skies and light winds. Differentiating the razor-thin 82-83°F (30%) and 84-85°F (26.5%) leads are subtle model divergences: GFS shows stronger afternoon boundary layer mixing for potential 85°F peaks, while ECMWF implies slightly tempered heating from delayed sea breeze onset amid warm sea surface temperatures near 78°F. Lower odds for 80°F or below reflect above-normal 500mb heights minimizing cool air advection, though urban heat island effects and exact insolation could swing the diurnal maximum by 1-2°F.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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