Trader consensus favors a high of 12°C in Ankara on March 24 at 31.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles converging on 11-13°C amid a mild spring front with light northerly winds capping peaks. Differentiating factors include subtle cloud cover forecasts—persistent overcast in UKMO runs suppresses to 10-11°C, while clearer skies in GEM models allow 13°C—against historical March 24 averages of 13°C from Turkish MGM records. Recent overnight lows near 5°C and morning observations signal a diurnal range of 6-8°C, with traders monitoring hourly satellite data for convective clearing that could nudge outcomes higher. Uncertainty stems from microscale inversions common in Ankara's plateau topography.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Ankara on March 24?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 24?
12°C 32%
11°C 22%
10°C 21%
13°C 20%
7°C or below
1%
8°C
7%
9°C
8%
10°C
21%
11°C
22%
12°C
32%
13°C
20%
14°C
16%
15°C
15%
16°C
4%
17°C or higher
2%
12°C 32%
11°C 22%
10°C 21%
13°C 20%
7°C or below
1%
8°C
7%
9°C
8%
10°C
21%
11°C
22%
12°C
32%
13°C
20%
14°C
16%
15°C
15%
16°C
4%
17°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a high of 12°C in Ankara on March 24 at 31.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles converging on 11-13°C amid a mild spring front with light northerly winds capping peaks. Differentiating factors include subtle cloud cover forecasts—persistent overcast in UKMO runs suppresses to 10-11°C, while clearer skies in GEM models allow 13°C—against historical March 24 averages of 13°C from Turkish MGM records. Recent overnight lows near 5°C and morning observations signal a diurnal range of 6-8°C, with traders monitoring hourly satellite data for convective clearing that could nudge outcomes higher. Uncertainty stems from microscale inversions common in Ankara's plateau topography.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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