Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a March 28 high temperature of 20°C in Chongqing (24% implied probability), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts averaging around 20°C amid strengthening southerly winds from the Yangtze basin. Closely trailing odds for 19°C (21%) and 21°C (22%) reflect model spread, with GFS runs occasionally dipping cooler due to potential mid-level cloud intrusions, while ICON variants push warmer under clearer skies. Historical late-March normals hover at 18-20°C, but recent observations of above-average diurnal ranges—boosted by urban heat island effects in this megacity—heighten uncertainty, leaving traders vigilant for tomorrow's 00Z model updates that could sharpen resolution criteria.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chongqing on March 28?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on March 28?
19°C 22%
20°C 19%
21°C 18%
17°C 14%
14°C or below
7%
15°C
9%
16°C
15%
17°C
16%
18°C
15%
19°C
22%
20°C
19%
21°C
18%
22°C
11%
23°C
11%
24°C or higher
10%
19°C 22%
20°C 19%
21°C 18%
17°C 14%
14°C or below
7%
15°C
9%
16°C
15%
17°C
16%
18°C
15%
19°C
22%
20°C
19%
21°C
18%
22°C
11%
23°C
11%
24°C or higher
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a March 28 high temperature of 20°C in Chongqing (24% implied probability), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts averaging around 20°C amid strengthening southerly winds from the Yangtze basin. Closely trailing odds for 19°C (21%) and 21°C (22%) reflect model spread, with GFS runs occasionally dipping cooler due to potential mid-level cloud intrusions, while ICON variants push warmer under clearer skies. Historical late-March normals hover at 18-20°C, but recent observations of above-average diurnal ranges—boosted by urban heat island effects in this megacity—heighten uncertainty, leaving traders vigilant for tomorrow's 00Z model updates that could sharpen resolution criteria.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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