Tight clustering of trader odds around 13–14°C for Munich's March 24 high temperature stems from the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on a mean of 13.5°C, with spreads of ±1–2°C driven by uncertainty in low-level cloudiness and the strength of southerly airflow ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. DWD's operational guidance favors 13°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, following mild Atlantic air masses that have elevated seasonal anomalies +2°C above the 1991–2020 March 24 average of 11.5°C. Differentiators include potential afternoon insolation boosting 14°C via urban heat island effects in Munich, versus overcast suppressing to 12°C; watch 12Z model runs for shifts as traders price this diurnal variability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Munique no dia 24 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Munique no dia 24 de março?
14°C 33%
13°C 27%
15°C 22%
12°C 21%
6°C ou menos
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
16%
9°C
18%
10°C
18%
11°C
19%
12°C
21%
13°C
27%
14°C
28%
15°C
22%
16°C ou mais
21%
14°C 33%
13°C 27%
15°C 22%
12°C 21%
6°C ou menos
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
16%
9°C
18%
10°C
18%
11°C
19%
12°C
21%
13°C
27%
14°C
28%
15°C
22%
16°C ou mais
21%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tight clustering of trader odds around 13–14°C for Munich's March 24 high temperature stems from the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on a mean of 13.5°C, with spreads of ±1–2°C driven by uncertainty in low-level cloudiness and the strength of southerly airflow ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. DWD's operational guidance favors 13°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, following mild Atlantic air masses that have elevated seasonal anomalies +2°C above the 1991–2020 March 24 average of 11.5°C. Differentiators include potential afternoon insolation boosting 14°C via urban heat island effects in Munich, versus overcast suppressing to 12°C; watch 12Z model runs for shifts as traders price this diurnal variability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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