Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 56-57°F (32.5% implied probability) for Seattle's highest temperature on March 28, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast pinpointing a high near 56°F amid persistent marine stratus clouds from the Pacific. This edges out 54-55°F (25.5%) and 58-59°F (25.0%) due to GFS and ECMWF ensembles converging on mild conditions under a weak upper-level ridge, with boundary layer stability limiting afternoon warming. Scientific differentiators include subtle variations in low-level moisture advection—favoring cooler outcomes if onshore flow strengthens—and historical March baselines around 55°F, where cloud breaks could push toward 58°F but low-pressure troughing caps extremes. Uncertainty lingers in 18z model updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Seattle on March 28?
Highest temperature in Seattle on March 28?
56-57°F 33%
54-55°F 29%
58-59°F 25%
52-53°F 15%
51°F or below
3%
52-53°F
10%
54-55°F
26%
56-57°F
33%
58-59°F
25%
60-61°F
7%
62-63°F
4%
64-65°F
4%
66-67°F
5%
68-69°F
2%
70°F or higher
1%
56-57°F 33%
54-55°F 29%
58-59°F 25%
52-53°F 15%
51°F or below
3%
52-53°F
10%
54-55°F
26%
56-57°F
33%
58-59°F
25%
60-61°F
7%
62-63°F
4%
64-65°F
4%
66-67°F
5%
68-69°F
2%
70°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 56-57°F (32.5% implied probability) for Seattle's highest temperature on March 28, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast pinpointing a high near 56°F amid persistent marine stratus clouds from the Pacific. This edges out 54-55°F (25.5%) and 58-59°F (25.0%) due to GFS and ECMWF ensembles converging on mild conditions under a weak upper-level ridge, with boundary layer stability limiting afternoon warming. Scientific differentiators include subtle variations in low-level moisture advection—favoring cooler outcomes if onshore flow strengthens—and historical March baselines around 55°F, where cloud breaks could push toward 58°F but low-pressure troughing caps extremes. Uncertainty lingers in 18z model updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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