Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Shanghai high of 18°C (30.5%) or 19°C (23.5%) for March 29, driven by the latest forecast model ensemble from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) outputs clustering predictions in the 17–20°C range amid mild early-spring conditions. A recent stabilization in the East Asian jet stream after last week's departing cold front has tempered volatility, while anticipated light southerly winds and partial cloudiness could cap peaks, with Shanghai's urban heat island effect providing upside potential to differentiate these tight outcomes. Historical late-March averages hover near 16°C, underscoring model sensitivity to boundary layer mixing; CMA's daily update later today may sharpen implied probabilities as resolution nears.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 29?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 29?
18°C 31%
19°C 24%
17°C 15%
20°C 9%
$11,719 Vol.
$11,719 Vol.
13°C or below
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
5%
16°C
7%
17°C
15%
18°C
31%
19°C
24%
20°C
9%
21°C
7%
22°C
5%
23°C or higher
1%
18°C 31%
19°C 24%
17°C 15%
20°C 9%
$11,719 Vol.
$11,719 Vol.
13°C or below
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
5%
16°C
7%
17°C
15%
18°C
31%
19°C
24%
20°C
9%
21°C
7%
22°C
5%
23°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Shanghai high of 18°C (30.5%) or 19°C (23.5%) for March 29, driven by the latest forecast model ensemble from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) outputs clustering predictions in the 17–20°C range amid mild early-spring conditions. A recent stabilization in the East Asian jet stream after last week's departing cold front has tempered volatility, while anticipated light southerly winds and partial cloudiness could cap peaks, with Shanghai's urban heat island effect providing upside potential to differentiate these tight outcomes. Historical late-March averages hover near 16°C, underscoring model sensitivity to boundary layer mixing; CMA's daily update later today may sharpen implied probabilities as resolution nears.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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