Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 19–22°C for Wellington's highest temperature on March 28, reflecting the latest ensemble forecasts from MetService and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on a peak of 20–21°C amid a high-pressure ridge fostering mild autumn warmth. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in southerly wind strength—stronger gusts could cap highs at 19°C by enhancing sea-breeze cooling over Wellington's coastal topography, while lighter flows allow advection of warmer northerlies to push toward 22°C. Historical March averages hover at 19.5–20.5°C, but recent model runs show reduced spread after yesterday's updates, lowering odds for extremes below 18°C or above 23°C as cloud cover remains minimal. Upcoming hourly observations from Kelburn station will sharpen resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Wellington on March 28?
Highest temperature in Wellington on March 28?
21°C 27%
20°C 22%
19°C 22%
18°C 18%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
3%
16°C
3%
17°C
16%
18°C
18%
19°C
22%
20°C
22%
21°C
27%
22°C
19%
23°C or higher
5%
21°C 27%
20°C 22%
19°C 22%
18°C 18%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
3%
16°C
3%
17°C
16%
18°C
18%
19°C
22%
20°C
22%
21°C
27%
22°C
19%
23°C or higher
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 19–22°C for Wellington's highest temperature on March 28, reflecting the latest ensemble forecasts from MetService and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on a peak of 20–21°C amid a high-pressure ridge fostering mild autumn warmth. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in southerly wind strength—stronger gusts could cap highs at 19°C by enhancing sea-breeze cooling over Wellington's coastal topography, while lighter flows allow advection of warmer northerlies to push toward 22°C. Historical March averages hover at 19.5–20.5°C, but recent model runs show reduced spread after yesterday's updates, lowering odds for extremes below 18°C or above 23°C as cloud cover remains minimal. Upcoming hourly observations from Kelburn station will sharpen resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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