Trader sentiment on Denver's March 28 high temperature heavily favors 80°F or higher at 39.5% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing a potent high-pressure ridge amplifying 500 mb heights over the central Rockies. This setup favors downslope chinook winds—warm, dry föhn effects common in spring—that can rapidly boost Front Range temperatures 20-30°F above climatological norms of around 57°F. Recent 12z model runs trended warmer than earlier cooler biases, with GFS pinpointing peaks near 82°F under clear skies and light winds. Lower bins like 76-77°F (22%) reflect ensemble spread uncertainty, while traders eye the afternoon 18z updates and official DEN airport observations for resolution criteria.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Denver on March 28?
Highest temperature in Denver on March 28?
80°F or higher 40%
78-79°F 22%
74-75°F 19%
72-73°F 19%
61°F or below
14%
62-63°F
8%
64-65°F
6%
66-67°F
14%
68-69°F
14%
70-71°F
5%
72-73°F
19%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
22%
78-79°F
22%
80°F or higher
40%
80°F or higher 40%
78-79°F 22%
74-75°F 19%
72-73°F 19%
61°F or below
14%
62-63°F
8%
64-65°F
6%
66-67°F
14%
68-69°F
14%
70-71°F
5%
72-73°F
19%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
22%
78-79°F
22%
80°F or higher
40%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Buckly Space Force Base Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:06 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/denver/KDENResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/denver/KDENResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Denver's March 28 high temperature heavily favors 80°F or higher at 39.5% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing a potent high-pressure ridge amplifying 500 mb heights over the central Rockies. This setup favors downslope chinook winds—warm, dry föhn effects common in spring—that can rapidly boost Front Range temperatures 20-30°F above climatological norms of around 57°F. Recent 12z model runs trended warmer than earlier cooler biases, with GFS pinpointing peaks near 82°F under clear skies and light winds. Lower bins like 76-77°F (22%) reflect ensemble spread uncertainty, while traders eye the afternoon 18z updates and official DEN airport observations for resolution criteria.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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