Trader sentiment clusters around 16–19°C for Milan's highest temperature on March 28, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts implying peaks near 17–18°C amid a high-pressure ridge over central Europe funneling mild southerly airflow. Recent model runs, updated within the last 24 hours, show a slight upward temperature revision of 1°C due to enhanced solar insolation and reduced cloud cover, narrowing the spread between leading outcomes. Differentiating factors include short-range forecast uncertainty (±1–2°C), urban heat island effects amplifying Milan's readings by up to 1°C over rural stations, and historical March anomalies where persistent blocking patterns have pushed highs 3–4°C above the 14°C climatological average. Final NWP updates and observational trends will sharpen resolution odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Milan on March 28?
Highest temperature in Milan on March 28?
17°C 27%
16°C 25%
18°C 24%
19°C 20%
11°C or below
2%
12°C
12%
13°C
15%
14°C
14%
15°C
19%
16°C
25%
17°C
27%
18°C
24%
19°C
20%
20°C
10%
21°C or higher
7%
17°C 27%
16°C 25%
18°C 24%
19°C 20%
11°C or below
2%
12°C
12%
13°C
15%
14°C
14%
15°C
19%
16°C
25%
17°C
27%
18°C
24%
19°C
20%
20°C
10%
21°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters around 16–19°C for Milan's highest temperature on March 28, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts implying peaks near 17–18°C amid a high-pressure ridge over central Europe funneling mild southerly airflow. Recent model runs, updated within the last 24 hours, show a slight upward temperature revision of 1°C due to enhanced solar insolation and reduced cloud cover, narrowing the spread between leading outcomes. Differentiating factors include short-range forecast uncertainty (±1–2°C), urban heat island effects amplifying Milan's readings by up to 1°C over rural stations, and historical March anomalies where persistent blocking patterns have pushed highs 3–4°C above the 14°C climatological average. Final NWP updates and observational trends will sharpen resolution odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions