Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 14–16°C for Milan's highest temperature on March 27, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging on a mild 14–16°C high amid a southerly airflow bringing warmer Atlantic air. The slight edge to 16°C (23%) over 14°C (22.5%) and 15°C (20.5%) stems from anticipated partial sunshine boosting daytime heating, per latest runs showing reduced cloud cover compared to earlier overcast projections. Historical late-March averages hover near 14°C, but low-pressure systems add uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and radiative forcing, keeping 17°C+ odds subdued at 25.5% combined while sub-14°C fades below 20%. Watch evening model updates for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Milan on March 27?
Highest temperature in Milan on March 27?
14°C 23%
16°C 23%
15°C 21%
17°C 13%
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
2%
11°C
5%
12°C
5%
13°C
8%
14°C
23%
15°C
21%
16°C
23%
17°C
13%
18°C or higher
13%
14°C 23%
16°C 23%
15°C 21%
17°C 13%
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
2%
11°C
5%
12°C
5%
13°C
8%
14°C
23%
15°C
21%
16°C
23%
17°C
13%
18°C or higher
13%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 14–16°C for Milan's highest temperature on March 27, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging on a mild 14–16°C high amid a southerly airflow bringing warmer Atlantic air. The slight edge to 16°C (23%) over 14°C (22.5%) and 15°C (20.5%) stems from anticipated partial sunshine boosting daytime heating, per latest runs showing reduced cloud cover compared to earlier overcast projections. Historical late-March averages hover near 14°C, but low-pressure systems add uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and radiative forcing, keeping 17°C+ odds subdued at 25.5% combined while sub-14°C fades below 20%. Watch evening model updates for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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