Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive the even odds across 14-18°C for Milan's March 25 high, with means hovering near 16°C amid a spread reflecting boundary-layer uncertainties in mild Atlantic airflow. March climatology supports mid-teens peaks—historical averages around 14°C—but a developing high-pressure ridge has nudged recent model runs upward by 1°C since yesterday, boosting sentiment for 17-18°C while capping extremes. Differentiating factors include subtle cloud cover forecasts (favoring clearer skies for 17°C+) and diurnal mixing from southerly winds, though mesoscale divergences keep probabilities tightly matched at 18% through 18°C, underscoring weather model volatility this late in the spring outlook.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Milão no dia 25 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Milão no dia 25 de março?
18°C 19%
14°C 18%
15°C 18%
16°C 18%
12°C ou menos
2%
13°C
17%
14°C
18%
15°C
18%
16°C
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
19%
19°C
17%
20°C
14%
21°C
12%
22°C ou mais
6%
18°C 19%
14°C 18%
15°C 18%
16°C 18%
12°C ou menos
2%
13°C
17%
14°C
18%
15°C
18%
16°C
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
19%
19°C
17%
20°C
14%
21°C
12%
22°C ou mais
6%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive the even odds across 14-18°C for Milan's March 25 high, with means hovering near 16°C amid a spread reflecting boundary-layer uncertainties in mild Atlantic airflow. March climatology supports mid-teens peaks—historical averages around 14°C—but a developing high-pressure ridge has nudged recent model runs upward by 1°C since yesterday, boosting sentiment for 17-18°C while capping extremes. Differentiating factors include subtle cloud cover forecasts (favoring clearer skies for 17°C+) and diurnal mixing from southerly winds, though mesoscale divergences keep probabilities tightly matched at 18% through 18°C, underscoring weather model volatility this late in the spring outlook.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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