Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models point to a Sao Paulo high temperature near 31°C on March 28, fueling its 29% implied probability as traders weigh peak afternoon heating under partly cloudy skies. INMET's official outlook aligns closely at 30-31°C, while historical March maxima average 28-29°C but often spike 2-3°C above norms during El Niño-influenced summers like 2024. Close contenders at 30°C (19%) and 29°C (18.5%) reflect model spread from potential sea breeze moderation or isolated convective showers, with urban heat island effects amplifying readings at official stations like Mirante de Santana. Uncertainty lingers ahead of tomorrow's 12Z updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 28?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 28?
31°C 29%
29°C 18%
30°C 18%
32°C 12%
24°C or below
3%
25°C
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
6%
28°C
9%
29°C
18%
30°C
18%
31°C
29%
32°C
12%
33°C
6%
34°C or higher
2%
31°C 29%
29°C 18%
30°C 18%
32°C 12%
24°C or below
3%
25°C
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
6%
28°C
9%
29°C
18%
30°C
18%
31°C
29%
32°C
12%
33°C
6%
34°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models point to a Sao Paulo high temperature near 31°C on March 28, fueling its 29% implied probability as traders weigh peak afternoon heating under partly cloudy skies. INMET's official outlook aligns closely at 30-31°C, while historical March maxima average 28-29°C but often spike 2-3°C above norms during El Niño-influenced summers like 2024. Close contenders at 30°C (19%) and 29°C (18.5%) reflect model spread from potential sea breeze moderation or isolated convective showers, with urban heat island effects amplifying readings at official stations like Mirante de Santana. Uncertainty lingers ahead of tomorrow's 12Z updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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