Iran's political landscape remains volatile following the 2026 war, Khamenei's death, and the June memorandum of understanding with the United States, with ongoing disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and implementation of the truce fueling internal divisions. Hardliners have publicly accused senior officials of a "soft coup" for engaging in negotiations, while the regime has strengthened internal security measures through appointments like the new Basij commander tasked with expanded monitoring and repression of dissent. Trader consensus on a coup attempt reflects these factional tensions, leadership uncertainty under Mojtaba Khamenei, and economic pressures but also the absence of verified military moves or large-scale defections to date. Scheduled diplomatic deadlines and potential further strikes or protests could shift dynamics before year-end resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$2,121,915 Vol.
31 dez 2026
31 de dezembro
9%
$2,121,915 Vol.
31 de dezembro
$80,690 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's political landscape remains volatile following the 2026 war, Khamenei's death, and the June memorandum of understanding with the United States, with ongoing disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and implementation of the truce fueling internal divisions. Hardliners have publicly accused senior officials of a "soft coup" for engaging in negotiations, while the regime has strengthened internal security measures through appointments like the new Basij commander tasked with expanded monitoring and repression of dissent. Trader consensus on a coup attempt reflects these factional tensions, leadership uncertainty under Mojtaba Khamenei, and economic pressures but also the absence of verified military moves or large-scale defections to date. Scheduled diplomatic deadlines and potential further strikes or protests could shift dynamics before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,121,915Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's political landscape remains volatile following the 2026 war, Khamenei's death, and the June memorandum of understanding with the United States, with ongoing disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and implementation of the truce fueling internal divisions. Hardliners have publicly accused senior officials of a "soft coup" for engaging in negotiations, while the regime has strengthened internal security measures through appointments like the new Basij commander tasked with expanded monitoring and repression of dissent. Trader consensus on a coup attempt reflects these factional tensions, leadership uncertainty under Mojtaba Khamenei, and economic pressures but also the absence of verified military moves or large-scale defections to date. Scheduled diplomatic deadlines and potential further strikes or protests could shift dynamics before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,121,915Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's political landscape remains volatile following the 2026 war, Khamenei's death, and the June memorandum of understanding with the United States, with ongoing disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and implementation of the truce fueling internal divisions. Hardliners have publicly accused senior officials of a "soft coup" for engaging in negotiations, while the regime has strengthened internal security measures through appointments like the new Basij commander tasked with expanded monitoring and repression of dissent. Trader consensus on a coup attempt reflects these factional tensions, leadership uncertainty under Mojtaba Khamenei, and economic pressures but also the absence of verified military moves or large-scale defections to date. Scheduled diplomatic deadlines and potential further strikes or protests could shift dynamics before year-end resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions