Putin maintains firm control through a fragmented elite, loyal security services including the FSO and FSB, and deliberate balancing of military factions that prevent coordinated challenges. Reports of tightened personal security and elite purges since early 2026 reflect proactive measures against potential plots rather than active threats, consistent with the regime’s post-Wagner response patterns. Economic strains from the Ukraine conflict, including fuel shortages and Ukrainian drone strikes on energy sites, have lowered war support in polls and prompted some internal grumbling, yet these pressures lack an organized mechanism or successor faction capable of action ahead of the September Duma elections. Traders price the 93.5% probability for no coup attempt accordingly, viewing the system’s structural safeguards and repression as durable barriers through year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado7% chance
$126,199 Vol.
$126,199 Vol.
30 dez 2026
7% chance
$126,199 Vol.
$126,199 Vol.
30 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains firm control through a fragmented elite, loyal security services including the FSO and FSB, and deliberate balancing of military factions that prevent coordinated challenges. Reports of tightened personal security and elite purges since early 2026 reflect proactive measures against potential plots rather than active threats, consistent with the regime’s post-Wagner response patterns. Economic strains from the Ukraine conflict, including fuel shortages and Ukrainian drone strikes on energy sites, have lowered war support in polls and prompted some internal grumbling, yet these pressures lack an organized mechanism or successor faction capable of action ahead of the September Duma elections. Traders price the 93.5% probability for no coup attempt accordingly, viewing the system’s structural safeguards and repression as durable barriers through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$126,199Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains firm control through a fragmented elite, loyal security services including the FSO and FSB, and deliberate balancing of military factions that prevent coordinated challenges. Reports of tightened personal security and elite purges since early 2026 reflect proactive measures against potential plots rather than active threats, consistent with the regime’s post-Wagner response patterns. Economic strains from the Ukraine conflict, including fuel shortages and Ukrainian drone strikes on energy sites, have lowered war support in polls and prompted some internal grumbling, yet these pressures lack an organized mechanism or successor faction capable of action ahead of the September Duma elections. Traders price the 93.5% probability for no coup attempt accordingly, viewing the system’s structural safeguards and repression as durable barriers through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$126,199Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Putin maintains firm control through a fragmented elite, loyal security services including the FSO and FSB, and deliberate balancing of military factions that prevent coordinated challenges. Reports of tightened personal security and elite purges since early 2026 reflect proactive measures against potential plots rather than active threats, consistent with the regime’s post-Wagner response patterns. Economic strains from the Ukraine conflict, including fuel shortages and Ukrainian drone strikes on energy sites, have lowered war support in polls and prompted some internal grumbling, yet these pressures lack an organized mechanism or successor faction capable of action ahead of the September Duma elections. Traders price the 93.5% probability for no coup attempt accordingly, viewing the system’s structural safeguards and repression as durable barriers through year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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