Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy, including September visits by envoys to Moscow and Kyiv, has revived trilateral negotiation prospects without producing a direct Putin-Zelenskyy encounter. The Kremlin continues to condition any bilateral meeting on prior agreements or a Moscow venue, rejecting Zelenskyy's September proposal for talks on the sidelines of the December G20 summit in Miami. Russia maintains battlefield operations and territorial demands while signaling openness to talks only after substantive progress. Ukraine has signaled readiness for meetings in neutral locations and expects possible resumption of three-way discussions in October. These positions, combined with the absence of verified high-level bilateral commitments, shape trader assessments of the likelihood that the leaders will meet and shake hands before key deadlines.