President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing in response to alleged Russian and Chinese activities initially raised expectations for a possible U.S. explosive test, yet subsequent administration statements clarified that planned activities involve non-explosive system and subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains a nominal 36-month readiness timeline for underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site, but has not received dedicated funding for test infrastructure or environmental compliance in recent years. Congressional oversight, arms-control considerations, and the absence of new executive actions or budget allocations since early 2026 have kept implied probabilities low through mid-2026, with traders pricing any test by year-end at single digits amid these persistent technical and procedural constraints.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTeste nuclear dos EUA por...?
Teste nuclear dos EUA por...?
$711,395 Vol.
30 jun 2026
30 de junho de 2026
<1%
30 de setembro de 2026
3%
31 de dezembro de 2026
8%
$711,395 Vol.
30 de junho de 2026
$47,281 Vol.
<1%
30 de setembro de 2026
$7,287 Vol.
3%
31 de dezembro de 2026
$46,608 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing in response to alleged Russian and Chinese activities initially raised expectations for a possible U.S. explosive test, yet subsequent administration statements clarified that planned activities involve non-explosive system and subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains a nominal 36-month readiness timeline for underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site, but has not received dedicated funding for test infrastructure or environmental compliance in recent years. Congressional oversight, arms-control considerations, and the absence of new executive actions or budget allocations since early 2026 have kept implied probabilities low through mid-2026, with traders pricing any test by year-end at single digits amid these persistent technical and procedural constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$711,395Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing in response to alleged Russian and Chinese activities initially raised expectations for a possible U.S. explosive test, yet subsequent administration statements clarified that planned activities involve non-explosive system and subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains a nominal 36-month readiness timeline for underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site, but has not received dedicated funding for test infrastructure or environmental compliance in recent years. Congressional oversight, arms-control considerations, and the absence of new executive actions or budget allocations since early 2026 have kept implied probabilities low through mid-2026, with traders pricing any test by year-end at single digits amid these persistent technical and procedural constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$711,395Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing in response to alleged Russian and Chinese activities initially raised expectations for a possible U.S. explosive test, yet subsequent administration statements clarified that planned activities involve non-explosive system and subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains a nominal 36-month readiness timeline for underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site, but has not received dedicated funding for test infrastructure or environmental compliance in recent years. Congressional oversight, arms-control considerations, and the absence of new executive actions or budget allocations since early 2026 have kept implied probabilities low through mid-2026, with traders pricing any test by year-end at single digits amid these persistent technical and procedural constraints.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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