President Trump’s October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other nations, citing Russian and Chinese activities, remains the central driver of trader focus. No explosive tests have occurred since the 1992 moratorium, however, due to infrastructure constraints at the Nevada National Security Site and an estimated multi-year timeline for full readiness under NNSA oversight. Recent developments include the expiration of New START, State Department reports on Chinese low-yield tests using decoupling, and FY2026 appropriations accelerating related warhead programs without authorizing yield-producing explosions. Key variables ahead include any new presidential instructions, annual stockpile assessments, and congressional actions on test readiness funding that could shift the timeline or maintain the status quo.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTeste nuclear dos EUA por...?
Teste nuclear dos EUA por...?
$768,767 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 de setembro de 2026
1%
31 de dezembro de 2026
4%
$768,767 Vol.
30 de setembro de 2026
$57,189 Vol.
1%
31 de dezembro de 2026
$50,767 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other nations, citing Russian and Chinese activities, remains the central driver of trader focus. No explosive tests have occurred since the 1992 moratorium, however, due to infrastructure constraints at the Nevada National Security Site and an estimated multi-year timeline for full readiness under NNSA oversight. Recent developments include the expiration of New START, State Department reports on Chinese low-yield tests using decoupling, and FY2026 appropriations accelerating related warhead programs without authorizing yield-producing explosions. Key variables ahead include any new presidential instructions, annual stockpile assessments, and congressional actions on test readiness funding that could shift the timeline or maintain the status quo.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$768,767Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other nations, citing Russian and Chinese activities, remains the central driver of trader focus. No explosive tests have occurred since the 1992 moratorium, however, due to infrastructure constraints at the Nevada National Security Site and an estimated multi-year timeline for full readiness under NNSA oversight. Recent developments include the expiration of New START, State Department reports on Chinese low-yield tests using decoupling, and FY2026 appropriations accelerating related warhead programs without authorizing yield-producing explosions. Key variables ahead include any new presidential instructions, annual stockpile assessments, and congressional actions on test readiness funding that could shift the timeline or maintain the status quo.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$768,767Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other nations, citing Russian and Chinese activities, remains the central driver of trader focus. No explosive tests have occurred since the 1992 moratorium, however, due to infrastructure constraints at the Nevada National Security Site and an estimated multi-year timeline for full readiness under NNSA oversight. Recent developments include the expiration of New START, State Department reports on Chinese low-yield tests using decoupling, and FY2026 appropriations accelerating related warhead programs without authorizing yield-producing explosions. Key variables ahead include any new presidential instructions, annual stockpile assessments, and congressional actions on test readiness funding that could shift the timeline or maintain the status quo.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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