Xi Jinping’s repeated purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia for alleged discipline violations, underscore centralized control and have eliminated potential rival networks. Official statements frame these moves as enforcement of party loyalty rather than responses to organized challenges, while unverified online rumors of tanks or plots in early 2026 produced no widely reported coup attempt. Traders assign 97.2 percent probability to “No” because China’s opaque Leninist structures and Xi’s dominance over military command have historically prevented open power struggles. Realistic shifts could still arise from sudden leadership health events, severe economic shocks, or major foreign-policy reversals before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline, though such developments would need to overcome entrenched institutional barriers to surface as a documented coup attempt.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$133,740 Vol.
$133,740 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$133,740 Vol.
$133,740 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s repeated purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia for alleged discipline violations, underscore centralized control and have eliminated potential rival networks. Official statements frame these moves as enforcement of party loyalty rather than responses to organized challenges, while unverified online rumors of tanks or plots in early 2026 produced no widely reported coup attempt. Traders assign 97.2 percent probability to “No” because China’s opaque Leninist structures and Xi’s dominance over military command have historically prevented open power struggles. Realistic shifts could still arise from sudden leadership health events, severe economic shocks, or major foreign-policy reversals before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline, though such developments would need to overcome entrenched institutional barriers to surface as a documented coup attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$133,740Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s repeated purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia for alleged discipline violations, underscore centralized control and have eliminated potential rival networks. Official statements frame these moves as enforcement of party loyalty rather than responses to organized challenges, while unverified online rumors of tanks or plots in early 2026 produced no widely reported coup attempt. Traders assign 97.2 percent probability to “No” because China’s opaque Leninist structures and Xi’s dominance over military command have historically prevented open power struggles. Realistic shifts could still arise from sudden leadership health events, severe economic shocks, or major foreign-policy reversals before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline, though such developments would need to overcome entrenched institutional barriers to surface as a documented coup attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$133,740Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s repeated purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including the January 2026 investigation of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia for alleged discipline violations, underscore centralized control and have eliminated potential rival networks. Official statements frame these moves as enforcement of party loyalty rather than responses to organized challenges, while unverified online rumors of tanks or plots in early 2026 produced no widely reported coup attempt. Traders assign 97.2 percent probability to “No” because China’s opaque Leninist structures and Xi’s dominance over military command have historically prevented open power struggles. Realistic shifts could still arise from sudden leadership health events, severe economic shocks, or major foreign-policy reversals before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline, though such developments would need to overcome entrenched institutional barriers to surface as a documented coup attempt.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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