A fragile US-brokered two-week ceasefire between Israel, the United States, and Iran, announced April 7, faces immediate collapse after Israel's largest airstrikes on Lebanon since the war began, killing over 250 and prompting Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz again amid reports of mines. This follows coordinated Iranian-backed attacks on Israel by Hezbollah and Houthis on April 6, which Iran rejected as ceasefire violations. Direct Israeli-US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, and energy infrastructure since February 28 have degraded Tehran's capabilities, but Netanyahu insists Lebanon operations are separate from the truce. Traders eye Saturday diplomatic talks and Trump's deadline for Hormuz reopening, with escalation risks high if proxies intensify or Iran retaliates directly.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoIsrael military action against Iran by...?
Israel military action against Iran by...?
NOVO
$12,807 Vol.
21 abr 2026
April 14
42%
April 21
66%
$12,807 Vol.
April 14
$5,342 Vol.
42%
April 21
$7,465 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile US-brokered two-week ceasefire between Israel, the United States, and Iran, announced April 7, faces immediate collapse after Israel's largest airstrikes on Lebanon since the war began, killing over 250 and prompting Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz again amid reports of mines. This follows coordinated Iranian-backed attacks on Israel by Hezbollah and Houthis on April 6, which Iran rejected as ceasefire violations. Direct Israeli-US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, and energy infrastructure since February 28 have degraded Tehran's capabilities, but Netanyahu insists Lebanon operations are separate from the truce. Traders eye Saturday diplomatic talks and Trump's deadline for Hormuz reopening, with escalation risks high if proxies intensify or Iran retaliates directly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volume
$12,807Data de Término
21 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile US-brokered two-week ceasefire between Israel, the United States, and Iran, announced April 7, faces immediate collapse after Israel's largest airstrikes on Lebanon since the war began, killing over 250 and prompting Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz again amid reports of mines. This follows coordinated Iranian-backed attacks on Israel by Hezbollah and Houthis on April 6, which Iran rejected as ceasefire violations. Direct Israeli-US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, and energy infrastructure since February 28 have degraded Tehran's capabilities, but Netanyahu insists Lebanon operations are separate from the truce. Traders eye Saturday diplomatic talks and Trump's deadline for Hormuz reopening, with escalation risks high if proxies intensify or Iran retaliates directly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$12,807Data de Término
21 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile US-brokered two-week ceasefire between Israel, the United States, and Iran, announced April 7, faces immediate collapse after Israel's largest airstrikes on Lebanon since the war began, killing over 250 and prompting Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz again amid reports of mines. This follows coordinated Iranian-backed attacks on Israel by Hezbollah and Houthis on April 6, which Iran rejected as ceasefire violations. Direct Israeli-US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, and energy infrastructure since February 28 have degraded Tehran's capabilities, but Netanyahu insists Lebanon operations are separate from the truce. Traders eye Saturday diplomatic talks and Trump's deadline for Hormuz reopening, with escalation risks high if proxies intensify or Iran retaliates directly.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions