**Traders assign a 91.5% probability to “No” because Israeli airspace has remained open since mid-2026 reopenings following repeated temporary closures tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian missile/drone responses.** As of mid-September, authorities maintain restricted but operational civilian access at Ben Gurion under ongoing risk assessments, with EASA and national NOTAMs advising caution rather than closure. Foreign carriers have scheduled phased returns in late October, including British Airways and others targeting October 25, consistent with a fragile truce and absence of fresh large-scale Iranian or Hezbollah barrages on Israeli territory in recent weeks. Escalation risks from Lebanon, Yemen, or renewed Strait of Hormuz activity persist and could prompt short-notice NOTAMs, yet current diplomatic and military postures have not produced the sustained threats that previously triggered full suspensions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
9% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 out 2026
Sim
9% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 out 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed at any point between October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued. A qualifying closure that took effect before October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and remains in effect at any point between October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will also qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders assign a 91.5% probability to “No” because Israeli airspace has remained open since mid-2026 reopenings following repeated temporary closures tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian missile/drone responses.** As of mid-September, authorities maintain restricted but operational civilian access at Ben Gurion under ongoing risk assessments, with EASA and national NOTAMs advising caution rather than closure. Foreign carriers have scheduled phased returns in late October, including British Airways and others targeting October 25, consistent with a fragile truce and absence of fresh large-scale Iranian or Hezbollah barrages on Israeli territory in recent weeks. Escalation risks from Lebanon, Yemen, or renewed Strait of Hormuz activity persist and could prompt short-notice NOTAMs, yet current diplomatic and military postures have not produced the sustained threats that previously triggered full suspensions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed at any point between October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued. A qualifying closure that took effect before October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and remains in effect at any point between October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will also qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued. A qualifying closure that took effect before October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and remains in effect at any point between October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will also qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 16, 2026, 3:04 PM ET
Volume
$680Data de Término
1 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 16, 2026, 3:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed at any point between October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued. A qualifying closure that took effect before October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and remains in effect at any point between October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will also qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders assign a 91.5% probability to “No” because Israeli airspace has remained open since mid-2026 reopenings following repeated temporary closures tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian missile/drone responses.** As of mid-September, authorities maintain restricted but operational civilian access at Ben Gurion under ongoing risk assessments, with EASA and national NOTAMs advising caution rather than closure. Foreign carriers have scheduled phased returns in late October, including British Airways and others targeting October 25, consistent with a fragile truce and absence of fresh large-scale Iranian or Hezbollah barrages on Israeli territory in recent weeks. Escalation risks from Lebanon, Yemen, or renewed Strait of Hormuz activity persist and could prompt short-notice NOTAMs, yet current diplomatic and military postures have not produced the sustained threats that previously triggered full suspensions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed at any point between October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued. A qualifying closure that took effect before October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and remains in effect at any point between October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will also qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued. A qualifying closure that took effect before October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and remains in effect at any point between October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will also qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$680Data de Término
1 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 16, 2026, 3:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 91.5% probability to “No” because Israeli airspace has remained open since mid-2026 reopenings following repeated temporary closures tied to U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian missile/drone responses.** As of mid-September, authorities maintain restricted but operational civilian access at Ben Gurion under ongoing risk assessments, with EASA and national NOTAMs advising caution rather than closure. Foreign carriers have scheduled phased returns in late October, including British Airways and others targeting October 25, consistent with a fragile truce and absence of fresh large-scale Iranian or Hezbollah barrages on Israeli territory in recent weeks. Escalation risks from Lebanon, Yemen, or renewed Strait of Hormuz activity persist and could prompt short-notice NOTAMs, yet current diplomatic and military postures have not produced the sustained threats that previously triggered full suspensions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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