Ralph Alvarado leads the KY-06 House race with 73.5% implied probability, reflecting the district’s R+7 lean, its 15-point Trump margin in 2024, and his decisive primary win backed by a Trump endorsement. As a physician, former Kentucky state senator, and Tennessee health commissioner, Alvarado benefits from strong Republican organizational and outside spending support. Zach Dembo, a Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor who served in Gov. Andy Beshear’s administration, trails at 25.5% despite recent Democratic efforts, including Beshear’s personal campaigning and super PAC ads targeting Alvarado’s record on Medicaid and nursing homes. Late-September 2026 ad spending from both sides and internal polls showing near-ties underscore a competitive environment, though the seat’s structural Republican advantage and open-seat dynamics continue to anchor trader consensus ahead of the November 3 election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa KY-06
Vencedor da eleição da casa KY-06
$35,227 Vol.
$35,227 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Ralph Alvarado (R)
74%
Zach Dembo (D)
26%
$35,227 Vol.
$35,227 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Ralph Alvarado (R)
$15,234 Vol.
74%
Zach Dembo (D)
$19,993 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ralph Alvarado leads the KY-06 House race with 73.5% implied probability, reflecting the district’s R+7 lean, its 15-point Trump margin in 2024, and his decisive primary win backed by a Trump endorsement. As a physician, former Kentucky state senator, and Tennessee health commissioner, Alvarado benefits from strong Republican organizational and outside spending support. Zach Dembo, a Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor who served in Gov. Andy Beshear’s administration, trails at 25.5% despite recent Democratic efforts, including Beshear’s personal campaigning and super PAC ads targeting Alvarado’s record on Medicaid and nursing homes. Late-September 2026 ad spending from both sides and internal polls showing near-ties underscore a competitive environment, though the seat’s structural Republican advantage and open-seat dynamics continue to anchor trader consensus ahead of the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$35,227Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ralph Alvarado leads the KY-06 House race with 73.5% implied probability, reflecting the district’s R+7 lean, its 15-point Trump margin in 2024, and his decisive primary win backed by a Trump endorsement. As a physician, former Kentucky state senator, and Tennessee health commissioner, Alvarado benefits from strong Republican organizational and outside spending support. Zach Dembo, a Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor who served in Gov. Andy Beshear’s administration, trails at 25.5% despite recent Democratic efforts, including Beshear’s personal campaigning and super PAC ads targeting Alvarado’s record on Medicaid and nursing homes. Late-September 2026 ad spending from both sides and internal polls showing near-ties underscore a competitive environment, though the seat’s structural Republican advantage and open-seat dynamics continue to anchor trader consensus ahead of the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,227Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ralph Alvarado leads the KY-06 House race with 73.5% implied probability, reflecting the district’s R+7 lean, its 15-point Trump margin in 2024, and his decisive primary win backed by a Trump endorsement. As a physician, former Kentucky state senator, and Tennessee health commissioner, Alvarado benefits from strong Republican organizational and outside spending support. Zach Dembo, a Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor who served in Gov. Andy Beshear’s administration, trails at 25.5% despite recent Democratic efforts, including Beshear’s personal campaigning and super PAC ads targeting Alvarado’s record on Medicaid and nursing homes. Late-September 2026 ad spending from both sides and internal polls showing near-ties underscore a competitive environment, though the seat’s structural Republican advantage and open-seat dynamics continue to anchor trader consensus ahead of the November 3 election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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